SuperJet-100 Crash in Indonesia: Possible Repercussions

The crash of the latest Russian commercial aircraft, the SSJ-100, in Indonesia has triggered vigorous discussion about the future of the Russian aviation industry. Views about the future of this particular project vary widely, with forecasts ranging from the complete failure of the program to zero negative effect of the Jakarta tragedy on the future of the Superjet-100 project.

The crash of the latest Russian commercial aircraft, the SSJ-100, in Indonesia has triggered vigorous discussion about the future of the Russian aviation industry. Views about the future of this particular project vary widely, with forecasts ranging from the complete failure of the program to zero negative effect of the Jakarta tragedy on the future of the Superjet-100 project.

New commercial aircraft often crash during tests or initial periods of operation, which does not necessarily destroy their future. The crash of the European Airbus-320 in 1988 is a case in point, as it did not prevent the aircraft from becoming Airbus’ best-selling machine in the future. Of course, the situation for the SSJ-100 is further complicated by the fact that it’s not just a new item on the market, but a new item from a new player. As is known, Sukhoi has achieved great successes on the market of combat airborne equipment, but is still a new player on the commercial aircraft market. Therefore, the SSJ-100 crash in Indonesia will deal it a more severe blow than Airbus crashes did to Airbus Industries in 1988 or 1994, when A-330 crashed outside Toulouse during a test flight.

In reality, the outcome of the Superjet-100 operation for Aeroflot, which has ordered 30 aircraft of this type, will be critical to the future of the project. Currently, Aeroflot operates eight SSJ-100s, and the first aircraft was received exactly one year ago. The results of the first year of operation show that the aircraft is crudely designed overall, has technical and operational flaws and therefore requires additional work. However, none of this is unusual for a new type of aircraft. The key issue today is whether the Sukhoi Civil Aircraft Company will be able to muster enough financial and political resources in order to make final touches and make the aircraft competitive on the international market, especially with Western airlines. The crash seems to have caused the greatest damage in exactly this area. The tragedy occurred on the second day after the inauguration of President Vladimir Putin during Victory Day celebrations on May 9. This alone is enough to significantly undermine the institutional lobbying capacity of the Sukhoi Company and the personal clout of the head of the United Aircraft Building Corporation (UABC), Mikhail Pogosyan. On the other hand, the new government, with Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, the patron and the man behind Pogosyan’s sudden appointment as head of UABC, leads us to believe that he will at least retain his political and lobbying positions.

The Russian aviation industry will most likely remain focused on military designs over the next eight to ten years. However, unlike in the previous decade, during which Russian military aircraft were mostly sold to foreign customers, such as China, India, Algeria, Vietnam, Venezuela and Malaysia, supplies until 2020 will mainly go to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Exports will be replaced by a more conventional model of domestic consumption. However, this model will remain precarious until the time when Russia is able to implement a commercially viable civilian airliner project. We will see whether the SSJ-100 becomes such a project within the next few months.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.