Sochi Summit and Fate of Assad

Russia played a vital role during the Syrian civil war, which is a proxy war in the Middle East. Through Astana process, Russia first assured the ceasefire and later in Sochi the door to peace was opened. The Russian Air force and the Navy made a huge blow to the terrorists of ISIS. Moreover, the Russian support to the Syrian army on the ground reinforced the Assad regime’s sovereignty in the country.

Today Russia has caught an amazing opportunity using the Khmeimim airbase and the naval base in Tartous including Idlib land bases for establishment of ceasefire and stability in Syria. Russia seems to keep its armed forces in the region until the Geneva peace talks reach final decisions. 

President Putin saved Bashar Assad despite his unsuccessful rule. It will not be a surprise to see Putin’s support during the transition period. It is likely that Bashar Assad will go on playing the first violin but in the future he will disappear from the stage.

Unfortunately, the international community and the UN failed to end the Syrian war and to stop the refugee crisis. After Sochi hopes may rise for a new cooperation.

During this new period the UN and international community should assume effective responsibility in the struggle against terrorism and crisis management. On the other hand, Russia with its political and military power must avoid the risk of arrogant behavior, which can endanger the peace process success.

Turkey-Iran-Russia Troika has prevented failures of the USA-led coalition and compensated the deficiency of initiatives. This new balance of power has a high potential to become the strong base for a historical partnership in the Middle East. Three important actors in the region are able to become role models to avoid the terrorism and violence spreading through ethnical, religious and sectarian reasons.

According to the international law, the Syrian society itself will determine the future of the country. The main concerns are connected with the urgent humanitarian aid, reconstruction of the country and normalization process.

Syrian Communities Summit failed to present a smart model based on the USA-Saudi Arabia program. Turkey-Iran-Russia Troika is expected to be more successful. Bashar Assad should never misuse this success, and Putin’s control here is of utmost importance. Otherwise, fragility on the ground might again cause the Arab Spring fire to spread all around Syria and the region. Another mistake of Bashar Assad will surely be the end of the regime and Syrian state.

In Syrian crisis Troika has gained a superior victory in Sochi by means of military and political stability. Indeed, the success of three countries against terrorism is the sword knotting the Gordian loop in this dirty game. Putin-Trump statement is also an important step towards ending the war and passing to the political solution. The Sochi summit is a noteworthy achievement targeting the defeat of terrorism in the Middle East and Eurasia.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.