Russia, Turkey and Iran are cooperating genuinely, but their position are not identical either: Turkey does not want the biggest Kurdish political party in Syria, Democratic Union Party (PYD), to be invited to the Congress of the Syrian People and Turkish President Erdogan voiced this concern during the press conference after the trilateral summit in Sochi, says Yaşar Yakış, former Turkish foreign minister.
President Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad held an important meeting on November 20 in Sochi. During the meeting Putin said that the military operation in Syria was coming to an end.
Does this mean that Russia intends to reduce gradually its military presence in the country? Not necessarily, because uncertainty in Syria may continue to prevail for some time. It will not be cautious to start reducing the military presence before the stability is consolidated. Furthermore, I believe that Russia did not send troops to Syria only to save the regime from falling. Settling in Syria and from there in other Middle Eastern countries was also among the Russia’s goals, especially in light of the undecided attitude of the United States on whether to shift its military focus from the Middle East to the Pacific Rim.
Assad left Syria for the first time since several years. Does this mean that he feels self-confident and will he participate in the elections after the transition to democracy because of this self-confidence? He may do so, but this question does not need to be sorted out at this stage. The United Nations Security Council resolution no. 2254 provides that the transition to democracy has to be “Syrian-led and Syrian-owned” and stresses that “the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria”. Since the elections have to take place under the strict surveillance of the international observers, denying Assad the right to run in the election will boil down to restricting the choice of the Syrian people to elect whomever they want and will be a deviation from the provisions of the UN Security Council resolution.
Syria needs time to put order to its interior. Tremendous efforts are needed to overcome innumerable problems that the country is facing. International community could not reach unanimity on how to approach Syria’s present and future problems. The most concrete measures for the Syrian crisis are the ones that are being taken by Russia. The trilateral summit held on November 22 in Sochi between Russian, Turkish and Iranian presidents is another step in that direction. The transition to democracy in Syria has to be as inclusive as possible. The parties that are left out of the process will have a justified reason to disagree with the solution and may be tempted to undo it.
Assad’s visit to Sochi took place two days before the trilateral summit. It is only natural to assume that the two meetings are linked to each other in one way or another. A face-to-face talk with Putin who is the steering power behind the political solution process, must have cleared several points that may have been pending.
It is not yet clear how full-heartedly Assad supports the Congress of the Syrian People. He opposed so far to negotiate with the terrorists. President Putin may have dispelled some of his misgivings. However, the more inclusive is the Congress, the sounder will be its decisions.
There are fundamental differences between the approaches adopted by the major stake holders in the Syrian crisis. Russia and the United States agree only on some tactical issues, but the divergences remain unbridgeable on the strategic issues.
Russia, Turkey and Iran are cooperating genuinely, but their position are not identical either: Turkey does not want the biggest Kurdish political party in Syria, Democratic Union Party (PYD), to be invited to the Congress of the Syrian People and Turkish President Erdogan voiced this concern during the press conference after the trilateral summit in Sochi. Turkey and Iran have convergent interests in not allowing Kurds to establish an uninterrupted belt in the north of Syria. The United States continue to supply weapons and ammunition to the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the military branch of the PYD, which Turkey considers as the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist organization that it is fighting since decades. Historically Russia is a strong supporter of the Kurdish cause.
Despite these complicated convergent and divergent interests, if there is political will and if the wisdom prevails, it is not impossible to find a reasonable middle ground for all these problems.
