Is Ukraine ready to do something about the gas pipe? What does it think about joining the Customs Union? These are major questions for President Putin who wants to involve Ukraine in integration is some form. In this context, the Tymoshenko issue is of secondary importance.
Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin met at an informal CIS summit in Moscow on May 15.
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interview with Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of the Kiev Center for Political and Conflict Studies.
What do you think about the results of this meeting?
There were no cardinal changes in bilateral relations since Yanukovych’s last visit to Moscow. There are some feeble signals of the sides’ desire to reconcile their positions but there has been no visible progress in this area.
I don’t rule out that they made some major decisions in a private conversation but we don’t know anything about them. The mass media of both countries continue their tough line towards each other. For the time being I don’t see any reason even for cautious optimism. Everything is pretty much the same.
After his visit Yanukovych said that Ukraine will ratify the agreement on a free trade zone in the CIS. What could you say about this decision?
It’s a shady story. The prime minister has signed the agreement. He is a meticulous man. It is hard to imagine that he signed it without any authority. This is why it all looks like the delay is political. If this is really so, and Azarov insists he was authorized to sign the agreement in St. Petersburg, it is enough for Yanukovych to send a signal for this agreement to be ratified by parliament immediately. Apparently, Ukraine expects Russia to send it some signals, even soft ones, to show its readiness for compromise.
This is a very sensitive issue. Mistrust has already reached a point when it is very difficult to break a stalemate. Someone has to make the first step, but neither of the sides is ready to assume such responsibility.
At some stretch it is possible to mention in this context the renunciation of the 3+1 formula by Yanukovych. Ukraine has been saying lately that it wants to cooperate with the Customs Union using the 3+1 formula, whereby three means Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan and one is Ukraine as a separate party with special terms. I have always considered this idea disastrous and even humiliating for Moscow. This time Yanukovych did not mention this formula but said they will search for a new one.
Can Ukraine make a foreign and economic policy turnaround towards the West or will Yanukovych balance between Russia and the European Union to the end?
On the one hand, the EU is clearly demonstrating its reluctance even to consider the prospect of Ukraine’s membership but on the other, it is laying the terms for consistent implementation of certain demands, after which the membership prospect can become a subject of discussion. I think that if rational politicians were the leaders, they would reason like this: “We will fulfill the requirements and see what happens but for the time being we must survive and we have tremendous problems. We cannot afford to lose the Russian market and are therefore ready to take part in Russia’s integration processes, which allow Ukraine to keep the European markets.” Notwithstanding that we realize that Europe is importing mostly raw materials or low-processed products from Ukraine.
Russia has long ago stated its position and has not changed it since then. We do not believe that Tymoshenko’s verdict was just or that she is guilty of anything. Importantly, this is an unprecedented case when Moscow, Brussels and Washington share a position on human rights, even if it comes to such a person as Tymoshenko. This is a heavy burden for the Ukrainian government and its outcome is unclear but I don’t think that it was one of the key issues in a private conversation of the two leaders. I think Russia has much more important questions: Is Ukraine ready to do something about the gas pipe? What does it think about joining the Customs Union? These are major questions for President Putin who wants to involve Ukraine in integration is some form. In this context, the Tymoshenko issue is of secondary importance.
How realistic is Yanukovych’s idea about trilateral gas cooperation?
Russia would prefer to first establish a gas transportation consortium with Ukraine and then to invite its European partners. Europe’s position on this issue was expressed at one time by the German ambassador, who said that Germany was not used to taking a seat at a table where others had already had lunch. This problem has many important technical details – the time, sequence of steps, interest rate, management rights, etc. There are so many parameters that it is always possible to come to terms.
A compromise will be reached if there is political will. I don’t think this is impossible. Our two countries must build mutual trust but lack of confidence between them is so high that they cannot take even the smallest steps.
