The Arab Spring has dramatically changed the alignment of forces in the Middle East and North Africa. What are the long-term consequences of these changes and how can relations be established with the new political elites? Politicians and leading experts on Middle East studies discussed these issues at the Valdai International Discussion Club conference, “Islam in Politics: Ideology or Pragmatism?” in Marrakesh, Morocco, on May 14-15.
The Arab Spring has dramatically changed the alignment of forces in the Middle East and North Africa. What are the long-term consequences of these changes and how can relations be established with the new political elites? Politicians who took part in these events and leading experts on Middle East studies from Russia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States discussed these issues at the Valdai International Discussion Club conference, “Islam in Politics: Ideology or Pragmatism?” in Marrakesh, Morocco, on May 14-15.
SECULAR FORCES START BUT ISLAMISTS WIN
The Arab Spring refers to the massive protests that broke out in the Middle East and North Africa in late 2010. They led to the downfall of regimes that ruled some countries for decades and ushered in major changes in others. However, in a vast majority of cases, the secular liberal forces and youth movements that initiated the riots have been pushed into the background by Islamists who had long been on the sidelines of politics. Some believe that the West, primarily the United States, supported or tacitly approved of this.
THE ARAB SPRING CRADLE
In Tunisia, where the Arab Spring began, the Islamic movement An-Nahda won the first free elections held in a long time. Its leader Rashid al-Ghannushi returned from Europe where he had spent many years hiding from the regime of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali. But whereas An-Nahda holds moderate views and uses only political means, Tunisian Salafis have recently stepped up their efforts to enforce Sharia law throughout the country that was long considered the most moderate and closest to Europe. There are periodic clashes between Salafis and police as well as secular forces. Hundreds of young Tunisians are being recruited to wage jihad against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
EGYPT IN THE HANDS OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
The Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt, the most populous Arab nation, after the downfall of the Mubarak regime. This was expected since they had always been considered the most organized opposition group. Even before Mubarak, a close US ally, stepped down, American diplomats and congressmen began to establish secret and later official contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood, after which Islamists began to actively meet with representatives of European and other countries.
The Freedom and Justice Party established by the Muslim Brotherhood comfortably won parliamentary elections while its nominee Mohamed Morsi was narrowly elected president. The Islamists’ rise to power has divided the country into supporters and opponents. Demonstrations that often lead to clashes continue in Egyptian major cities. Tens of thousands of Coptic Christians have already left the country, fearful for the future. The secular forces that have united as the National Salvation Front are accusing the Muslim Brotherhood of attempting to change Egypt’s secular character by appointing its supporters to all key positions in ministries and departments, law-enforcement agencies, central and regional government bodies and the judiciary.
ISLAMISTS WAITING FOR THEIR CHANCE IN SYRIA
In Syria, where the Arab Spring turned into civil war, a considerable number of the armed units fighting against government forces are religious extremists, including many mercenaries from European and other countries. One such group, the an-Nusra Front, declared itself an affiliate of al-Qaeda and was labeled a terrorist organization by the United States.
The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood carries considerable weight in the political opposition that has formed the National Coalition. According to the media, Syrian Islamists who were based in London for a long time are receiving significant financial support from Turkey and Qatar, whose ruling elites share a similar ideology. Like their Egyptian counterpart, the Syrian Brotherhood has the most developed institutional structure, considerable and steady funding, a website and even a newspaper. In theory it is prepared to take power in the event of the Assad regime’s downfall. In the early 1980s the Muslim Brotherhood took up arms against Hafez Assad, but the father of the current president brutally suppressed their uprising.
THE MAGHREB LOST IN THOUGHT
In Morocco, the Islamist Justice and Development Party won parliamentary elections and formed a coalition government. Neighboring Algeria is the exception – Islamists lost the 2012 elections to secular parties from the ruling coalition. Experts emphasize that after a decade of conflict between the authorities and religious extremists and in light of the negative experience of their neighbors, the Algerians preferred the familiar and predictable political forces. Libya had essentially no experience with politics during Muammar Gaddafi’s 40 year rule, and its political configuration is still unclear. However, there are many supporters of radical Islamists among its numerous armed militias.
OIL MONARCHIES
As for the oil and gas rich Gulf countries, the Arab Spring may have affected them but did not cause any dramatic changes. The only exceptions are Bahrain, which is going through a period of political instability, and Kuwait, where massive anti-government demonstrations were held on the eve of parliamentary elections but did not lead to noticeable changes.
RIA Novosti, Nadim Zuaui.
