Russia and China bear a special responsibility for establishing the foundations of stability and security in Eurasia, as well as on a global scale, and even beyond our planet. At the same time, the bedrock of good-neighbourly relations between the Russian Federation and the PRC, is an often unfairly criticised arms control instrument - the Shanghai and Moscow Agreements on Border Military Activities and the Russian-Chinese Agreement on the Notification of Missile and Rocket Launches.
Fundamentals and progress
Today, we observe the continued progressive development of cooperation between Moscow and Beijing in the field of security, regardless of pressure from third countries. Moreover, it is precisely this pressure that is one of the drivers for strengthening such cooperation. Russia and China are now not only a kind of “strong rear” for each other, but are also increasing mutual support, openly or not, in those areas where the United States, as well as its allies and partners, are particularly active, aimed at “dual deterrence”. Hence the appearance in the lexicon of Russian and Chinese diplomats and experts of the term "dual counteraction" in response to "dual deterrence". It is also worth noting that now the Americans, including high-ranking officials, sometimes express surprise at such Russian-Chinese interaction and concern that this is creating new problems for Washington.
Joint actions
Five years ago, even the idea of joint patrols of heavy bombers seemed extremely bold, and now we can see this process becoming routine. Moreover, the geography of such joint flights is expanding, and the joint use of airfield infrastructure is implemented.
There is active interaction in the naval area, and new accents are also emerging. In particular, joint anti-submarine warfare exercises are quite possibly being conducted considering the prospects for the emergence of new nuclear submarines operators in the Pacific Ocean. Defence against uncrewed systems, both air and sea-based, is also being worked out. Joint exercises at sea are also conducted by the nations’ coast guard forces. Cooperation in the field of building the Chinese Early Warning System continues, and integration of the systems of the two countries is also possible given the growth of missile threats on a regional and global scale.
A pressing issue is the prospect for permanent basing of American intermediate-range ground-launch missiles in the Eurasian space - both in Europe and Asia, as well as the further deployment of US missile defence systems. This situation is aggravated by the green light Washington has given its allies and partners, who are also beginning to conduct relevant developments and are planning to purchase American missile systems. At the same time, there is a classic case of the "security dilemma": it was the Chinese emphasis on ground-launched intermediate-range missiles in its military development that was perceived by the United States as a threat. The suppression of it required symmetrical measures, while this emphasis in the PRC arose in connection with the perceived superiority of the United States in the field of long-range precision sea and air-launched weapons.
It seems that in the future, interaction between the Russian Armed Forces and the PLA will only increase. Eventually, it is possible that we will see not only joint patrols of ships and bombers, but also practice missile strikes on provisional targets; this would not only entail political consultations on the issue of intermediate-range missiles, but also joint reciprocal exercises on strikes with such missiles and defence against them.
Multilateral interaction
The approaches of Russia and China are actively and productively coordinated on international platforms. Joint work is underway, for example, to ensure international control over the implementation of the American-British-Australian AUKUS project in terms of the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia. Other potentially destabilising initiatives are also being implemented within the framework of this bloc, including with the involvement of other countries in the region, in particular, in the field of the military use of artificial intelligence, as well as on the integration of the space capabilities of these countries and their partners.
The presidency of the "Nuclear Five" for the coming year has passed from Russia to China. This platform retains special significance, especially due to the interruption of other contacts in the nuclear sphere, although the actions of Western countries to form a “correct trio” (the US, UK and France) in order to counter the “improper quadrangle” of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran are causing quite significant harm. A substantive discussion of doctrinal guidelines in the nuclear sphere is an important element of the work of the “nuclear five”, which is especially relevant in connection with the update of the Russian nuclear doctrine and the PRC initiative on an a treaty on “mutual no-first-use of nuclear weapons”.
It should be recalled that the corresponding obligation on no-first-use exists between Russia and China in accordance with the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation. At the same time, of course, there are certain contradictions, for example, in terms of the deployment of nuclear weapons outside national territory, as well as the parameters for the involvement of third countries in the process of strategic weapons limitations. At the same time, as far as can be judged, there is an understanding of the root causes that determine the differences in the Russian and Chinese approaches. Active cooperation in the field of preventing an arms race in outer space continues, the draft Russian-Chinese Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects remains relevant and confirms the unity of our countries’ approaches to the need for legally binding agreements in this area, which was reflected in the final report of the UN Group of Governmental Experts in August 2024. At the same time, in terms of outer space, there is an intensification of contradictions; in fact, the world is on the brink of open confrontation. In such a situation, it is especially important to thoroughly discuss the plans and priorities of the two countries in order that they avoid creating problems for each other, as well as to search for new formats of cooperation.
New Horizons
An important promising area of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the security sphere is the conjugation of Russian ideas about the Eurasian security system with the Chinese Global Security Initiative. Such work is quite feasible given the open, inclusive nature of the approaches of both Moscow and Beijing, especially since the experience of such conjugation has already been accumulated in the economic sphere. At the same time, again, the process is by no means “automatic” and requires a balanced, in-depth analysis with an emphasis on observing, first of all, national interests in the security sphere.
In conclusion, it should be noted that, in the author’s opinion, the key characteristic of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the security sphere is general mutual support without direct participation in individual conflicts. Thus, the possibility of greater flexibility and greater efficiency of work in the international arena is preserved, and even to some extent the contradiction between the tasks of ensuring security and ensuring development is removed. The conflicts in Europe and especially the Ukrainian conflict do not require the direct involvement of the Chinese armed forces, just as the conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region do not require the involvement of the Russian army. At the same time, the military personnel of the two countries exchange experience on a regular basis and demonstrate growing mutual understanding.
