Today the world is about to make a new technological breakthrough which is linked with the interaction of information and communication technology, and the development of medicine and biotechnology. Russia’s certain achievements in these spheres will allow it to become a serious global player.
Recently, the Ministry of Economic Development published its forecast of national socio-economic development to 2030, which was endorsed by the Government late last March. In presenting the document, Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach said this is “the first quantitative long-term estimate in the history of modern Russia as distinct from the usual three year cycle.”
Klepach said the forecast is based on a “conservative view of global economic development.” Its authors predict that in the next few years the Eurozone will slowly overcome stagnation, the US economy will grow and the growth rates of China’s and India's economic advance will slow down. That said, by 2030 China, India and Japan will account for about 40% of the global GDP. Klepach said that in this context it would be very interesting to know what we will sell to them and what they will be interested in.
The forecast is based on the premise that hydrocarbons will remain the main energy source in the world but the market will change substantially… “We do not expect prices to take a dive, but they will be lower than we are used to. This will be the prevailing trend,” Klepach said, adding that he does not see “an opportunity to develop and bridge the gap with advanced countries by increasing oil prices.”
The document analyses three basic development scenarios: conservative, innovative and intensified. The conservative scenario provides for economic measures to upgrade the raw materials and energy sectors and the pension system, as well as institutional and social transformation. Klepach said that such modernization will be patchy.
If Russia follows this scenario, its economic development rates will be a bit slower than the predicted global figure. “The Government will try to depart from the conservative scenario, although it is likely by virtue of the established development trends and performance of institutions,” Klepach said.
“At the same time today the world is about to make a new technological breakthrough which is linked with the interaction of information and communication technology, and the development of medicine and biotechnology,” Klepach said. He believes Russia’s certain achievements in these spheres will allow it to become a serious global player. This is possible if it follows the two other scenarios.
If it follows the innovative scenario, not only global oil prices or the ruble's rate versus other currencies, but also “its ability to develop as an intellectual economy” will become the decisive factors. This scenario predicts 4%-4.2% average annual economic growth. Klepach said this would allow Russia “practically to match the gap in living standards with the Eurozone. He said the innovative scenario is the most balanced in terms of potential risks and the need for serious economic change.
The intensified scenario provides for serious social reforms designed to increase the share of the middle class as compared to other categories, and for making Russian businesses more active. “Apart from upgrading the infrastructure and high-tech sector – a goal in the innovative scenario – Russian private companies will considerably reduce the gap with its rivals in many parameters, including its ability to enter world markets and enhance labor productivity. This amounts to developing a new economy.” Klepach said.
“The intensified scenario envisages a different lifestyle for the majority of Russian families and society as a whole. This represents a different quality of corporate, regional and government management. This is why the government set forth a project for human capital development. “I think that for all the difficulties, we have the chance to follow the innovative and/or intensified scenario,” Klepach concluded.