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Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term balances continuity and change in India's foreign policy, emphasising strategic autonomy, regional stability, and deeper engagement with the Global South. His “Neighbourhood First” policy, complex relations with China and Pakistan, and strengthened ties with Russia underscore India's commitment to a multipolar vision and a significant role in global governance, writes Rupal Mishra. The author is a participant of the Valdai - New Generation project.

From April 19 to June 1, India conducted its general elections to select 543 Lok Sabha members. These elections, regarded as the world’s largest festival of democracy, involved 969 million eligible voters, approximately one-eighth of the global population. India is the fifth-largest economy and a rising global power, so its polls carry significant global importance. 

When the results were declared on June 4, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the largest party, securing 240 seats. They formed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition government with two key regional partners: Chandra Babu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal-United (JD(U)). The election also witnessed a resurgence of India's opposition, which won 234 seats.  

On June 9, Mr. Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s Prime Minister for a third term in a grand ceremony at the presidential palace in Delhi. At 73, Mr. Modi became only the second leader in the country’s history to win a third term, following in the footsteps of its first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.

As head of the government, Modi has retained the same team for the Ministry of External Affairs and National Security, so broad continuity in India's foreign policy is anticipated. The current administration will continue to articulate and nurture an identity for India that is grounded in civilisational exceptionalism and strategic autonomy. However, several structural changes in domestic politics also hint at potential points of departure. These internal shifts may influence India's diplomatic strategies and priorities.

Neighbourhood First Policy

During his first term in 2014, Prime Minister Modi attempted to revive the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) by inviting India’s immediate neighbours to his swearing-in ceremony. In 2019, leaders from the BIMSTEC nations—Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Nepal, and Bhutan—were invited instead. This signalled a shift away from Pakistan and towards the “Act East” policy, emphasising economic diplomacy and connectivity. The neighbourhood continues to be priority number one. At the recent swearing-in ceremony, heads of state from Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives were present, while Pakistan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, and China were notably absent. The Indian government has yet not recognised the Taliban in Afghanistan or the military Junta regime in Myanmar. 

One of the hallmarks of PM Modi’s diplomacy has been to consolidate India’s leadership role in the sub-region through groupings like BBIN and BIMSTEC, which seem poised to continue. This strategy aims to strengthen ties with neighbouring countries and ensure regional stability. Additionally, the presence of leaders from the island nations of the Maldives, Mauritius, and Seychelles represents both continuity and a leap forward in India’s maritime vision. It highlights India's ongoing commitment to regional partnerships and its strategic focus on the Indian Ocean. 

The invitation extended to Maldives President Mohammed Muizzu, who was seated next to PM Modi at the presidential banquet, carries particular significance. This gesture aims to ease tensions in bilateral relations that have been strained since President Muizzu, widely regarded as a pro-China leader, assumed office. His election campaign was notably marked by ‘India Out’ rhetoric. After his victory, Muizzu demanded the withdrawal of Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives to operate and maintain two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft gifted by India. As a key maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region, the Maldives holds a special place in India's initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) and the Neighbourhood First policy.

Coalition Politics and The Rise of the Opposition 

With a coalition government steering foreign policy, questions have arisen about its coherence and impact. History offers some insights. In 2008, the Manmohan Singh government faced challenges due to a coalition partner's opposition to the US nuclear deal. However, experts believe the current situation might be different. Ambassador Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, has emphasised that a coalition's success in foreign policy depends heavily on its composition. A strong leading party with partners that lack distinct foreign policy agendas creates a more stable environment for decision-making. Despite some expecting a softening of India's foreign policy stance, particularly concerning the West and the Ukraine war, Ambassador Saran suggests nationalism will likely remain a guiding force in Indian politics, maintaining a firm approach.  
 
Regional partners within the coalition bring unique strengths. The JD(U) party is based in Bihar, a state that borders Nepal, and it can play a significant role in regional relations. Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, for example, offers valuable contributions. Naidu's experience as Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh has equipped him to use "entrepreneurial diplomacy." His efforts to attract foreign investment, especially from China, Japan, and South Korea, demonstrate his focus on economic ties. Maintaining effective collaboration between the central government and its regional partners is crucial. Working together will ensure that shared economic goals are translated into concrete action. Meanwhile, the domestic political discourse, including speeches by Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi on several national security issues, has highlighted potential challenges for Modi’s new term, with the Opposition expected to play a significant role.

The China Challenge and The Pakistan Conundrum

The onset of Modi's third term has been marked by strained relations with China. Notably, President Xi Jinping did not extend a congratulatory message to the prime minister. Tensions escalated when Mr. Modi acknowledged a congratulatory message from Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, provoking a sharp response from Beijing. A Xinhua commentary warned, "Modi’s victory is overestimated, but it would be wise for him not to underestimate the challenges ahead."  Achieving a détente at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) will be a key priority of the Modi 3.0 administration. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has committed to accelerating the development of robust infrastructure along the Indo-China border in its election manifesto. Additionally, the manifesto emphasises ensuring "freedom of navigation and maritime security in the Indian Ocean" and “expanding India's defence footprint across strategic locations in partnership with friendly countries.” 

Amid India's election proceedings, China hosted Pakistan’s Prime Minister, resulting in a joint statement on Jammu and Kashmir that drew objections from India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Recently, China also deployed advanced J-20 stealth fighter jets to Shigatse, only 150 kilometres from the Indian state of Sikkim, demonstrating its strategic military capabilities. This deployment underscores the ongoing tension and strategic manoeuvring in the region.

Meanwhile, prospects for détente with Pakistan appear bleak. Despite hints from Pakistan’s Foreign Minister about the possibility of resuming trade, a terrorist attack in Reasi, Jammu & Kashmir on the day of Mr. Modi's swearing-in ceremony on June 12, 2024 underscores the growing violence in the erstwhile state. This incident, part of a broader trend of escalating conflict in the region, complicates any potential engagement with Pakistan. The persistent threat of terrorism and the volatile security situation make diplomatic efforts with Islamabad increasingly challenging. 

Geopolitical Balancing and Leader of the Global South

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has articulated the guiding principles of India's foreign policy in his second term, emphasising “Bharat First” (India First) and “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam” (the world is one family). The government aims to position India as a "Vishwa Bandhu" (friend of the world) amid a turbulent global landscape rife with conflicts and tensions. As new interest groups, including the Global South, amplify calls for reform, India plans to leverage plurilateral and regional groupings to advance its agenda. The nation is poised to play a pivotal role in forums such as the G-20, BRICS, ASEAN, BIMSTEC, and IORA, underscoring its commitment to shaping regional and global governance frameworks. Simultaneously, Mr. Modi's administration is poised to advocate for reforms in institutions like the United Nations, World Bank, IMF, and WTO, arguing that their decision-making frameworks are relics of a bygone era that must evolve to accommodate the multipolar world and the aspirations of emerging economies. In September 2024, Modi will renew India's pitch for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, aligning with its G4 partners' longstanding campaign. 

PM Modi’s visit to Russia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose Russia for his first bilateral visit, signalling his country’s commitment to strategic autonomy despite considerable efforts by the Biden administration to court him. During his visit to Moscow, Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to boost trade between their countries. They have pledged to increase annual bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, up from the current $65 billion. This commitment signals a deepening economic partnership. Additionally, India's establishment of new consulates in Ekaterinburg and Kazan highlights its growing interest in Russia. This visit reflects India's underlying multipolar vision in its international outreach. It dispels misperceptions of a decline in India-Russia relations, demonstrating that cooperation between the two countries remains stable and unaffected by the current geopolitical configuration.

Conclusion

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term balances continuity and change in India's foreign policy, emphasising strategic autonomy, regional stability, and deeper engagement with the Global South. His “Neighbourhood First” policy, complex relations with China and Pakistan, and strengthened ties with Russia underscore India's commitment to a multipolar vision and a significant role in global governance.

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