Globalization and Sovereignty
Beyond Visa-Free: Remapping Russian and Chinese Mutual Perception

Russia and China, despite their long history of interaction, stand at the brink of a true mutual rediscovery—one promising to fundamentally enrich the perception each nation holds of the other, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. 

In September 2025, China opened visa-free access to individual Russian tourists for the first time. This new policy is officially a one-year pilot, but its extension appears highly probable—as well as the reciprocal visa-free regime for Chinese citizens visiting Russia, which took effect on December 1. This move aligns with Beijing’s broader strategy of easing entry requirements for citizens of dozens of countries implemented over the past couple of years. 

Industry data confirms the policy’s significance. The Association of Tour Operators of Russia forecasts that China will rank as the third most popular foreign destination for Russian tourists in 2025, with a projected 30% year-on-year increase in tourist traffic. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Economic Development expects that mutual tourist flows will double pre-pandemic levels by 2030. 

Beyond economic gains, facilitating these exchanges is poised to deepen mutual curiosity and personal connections. One obvious beneficiary of the visa-free regime is the independent traveller segment, which is growing in both countries. 

This growth has a logical explanation, rooted in technology—from ubiquitous booking platforms to AI-powered translation—and by a distinct value system. These travellers are predominantly urban, educated, and tech-savvy, motivated by the values ​​of experience and freedom. They seek authentic experience over packaged tours, aiming to engage with a country holistically. As their numbers grow, they have the potential to fundamentally reshape how Russians and Chinese perceive one another. 

Global China and the Fears of its Neighbours
Anton Bespalov
“Hide your strength, bide your time,” Deng Xiaoping used to say. In recent years, China has become increasingly vocal on the world stage. Has its historical moment come? Many observers believe that by means of its Belt and Road Initiative China is remaking Eurasia to serve its goals. Valdai Club experts explain whether this is true and if China’s interests can be aligned with those of its neighbours.
Opinions

Until recently, bilateral travel agreements between Russia and China privileged organized tour groups above all else, as formalized in a 2000 pact on visa-free group travel (suspended from 2020 to 2023 due to the pandemic). A surge in such group tourism from China commenced in 2015, fuelled by a depreciating ruble and expanded charter flight availability. 

Yet this boom coincided with a global shift in Chinese travel preferences toward independent exploration. As for Russian-Chinese tourism relations, the focus on group tourism, inherited from the previous era, backfired. In the pre-pandemic years, a business model catering to a narrow demographic—older, mid-tier consumers—combined with objective market conditions, fostered insular service networks. These operated as a quasi-legal tourism bubble, largely detached from the broader Russian economy. This limited contact with the local community and contributed to certain stereotypes on both sides. As for independent travellers from China, they preferred other destinations due to difficulties entering the country. 

According to 2024 figures, Russia ranked 19th among destinations for Chinese tourists. While this may appear unremarkable—despite a seven-place rise over the year—the context is crucial. The consistent leaders in Chinese outbound tourism are neighbouring countries in East and Southeast Asia, along with the United States, Canada, and Australia. More revealingly, among European nations, Russia placed fourth, behind only Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain. It is important to note that within the Chinese market, Russia is traditionally positioned and perceived as a European destination, even if the visit is to its Far East. 

The 2000-era group-tourism model showed its limits in 2025, with a documented decline in visa-free group traffic from China.

 Experts cite a stronger ruble and operational concerns like airport closures. This downturn, however, is set against a backdrop of significant potential growth. Industry analysts project that the new visa-free regime could boost overall Chinese tourist traffic to Russia by 30 to 50 percent, with the surge driven largely by independent travellers. This emerging demographic, more risk-tolerant and experience-driven, seeks Russia not as a budget European alternative but as a complex, research-worthy destination in its own right. 

It’s worth noting that the share of independent travellers in Russia is also steadily growing. Domestically, independent travel dominates (90%), and while organized tours still lead outbound travel (62%), the independent cohort is growing rapidly. This expansion is fuelled by Zoomers and Millennials who prioritize autonomy and unique experiences. Chinese regulatory frameworks, which until recently allowed visa-free entry for Russians only to the tropical island of Hainan, were clearly lagging behind the times—especially since entry requirements were quite complex, once again favouring organized tourists. However, in recent years, this has been somewhat offset by relatively liberal visa-free transit rules, which apply to 24 administrative units (including the entire territory of fourteen provinces). 

The visa-free exchange with China commenced precisely as access to the EU—the traditional cornerstone of Russian independent and heritage tourism—became severely restricted. Geopolitics has thus engendered a striking paradox: for Russians, even those in the European part of the country, China now presents a more affordable and accessible destination than Western Europe (not to mention personal safety). If this trajectory holds, China is poised to capture for a new generation of Russian travellers the cultural and aspirational niche that Europe occupied two decades ago. 

Globalization and Sovereignty
The Fateful 2030: How Strategic Documents Frame the ‘Russian Threat’ Across the Atlantic
Anton Bespalov
Despite conceptual differences with European assessments of threats, the escalation of military anxieties in Europe benefits the United States, as it justifies the need to raise NATO members’ military spending to 5% of GDP – a goal championed by the White House. However, militarising Europe and conditioning its younger generations for war with Russia may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the entire continent, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov.
Opinions

Europe’s profound imprint on the Russian psyche is undeniable, forged by shared Christian roots, deep historical entanglement, and a longstanding view of the West as a paradigm of advancement. In contrast, the connective tissue with Chinese civilization has been thinner. Yet new points of contact are rapidly emerging thanks to the technological revolution—digitalization, artificial intelligence—and social changes in China—urbanization and globalization of education. Contemporary China, steadfast in its identity while engaging dynamically with the world, is becoming increasingly understandable to foreigners on a practical level. Having become one of the world’s technological leaders, China is least suited to the role of “exotic Asia” destined for it within the Western-centric “Orientalist” paradigm. In a sense, Western Europe—at least its liberal-globalist part—with its values, social practices, and mode of action on the international stage is becoming more exotic. 

Digitalization acts as both a practical bridge and a cultural conduit. Shared familiarity with advanced electronic services fosters immediate practical proximity, while digital platforms facilitate intercultural dialogue, revealing underlying commonalities in values. The increasing visibility of each nation in the other’s digital media ecosystem is cementing this connection.

 Consequently, seamless digital infrastructure is not a mere logistical concern but the essential foundation for transforming the 2025 reset in tourism into a lasting qualitative shift. Harmonizing payment systems, ensuring app interoperability, and creating a frictionless digital experience are prerequisites for this new chapter. It is therefore apt to conclude that Russia and China, despite their long history of interaction, stand at the brink of a true mutual rediscovery—one promising to fundamentally enrich the perception each nation holds of the other.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.