Presidential campaign in Russia: Decisive battles are waged in the streets

More on this topic

Read more on:  Election, Opposition, Putin, 2012

© Yuri Streletc, RIA Novosti

Valdaiclub.com interview with Gabor Stier, foreign policy editor of the Hungarian conservative daily newspaper Magyar Nemzet.

How would you describe the start of the presidential campaign in Russia?

There have not been any fundamentally new elements in the race, yet the general situation has changed dramatically. Vladimir Putin will obviously win in the first round, but the stakes have gotten higher. The issue at hand is the future of his government, so he needs to get down to business, rather than calling upon the past. He should act as if he were a new face on the political stage.

Is the election campaigning sufficiently active? Are the candidates only getting started or have they reached the necessary level of activity?

In fact, the campaign itself started long before February 4. In a way, it did not stop with the State Duma elections, even though the New Year holidays and severe colds dampened the degree of political activity. The campaigns’ warm-up period included the establishment of Putin’s election headquarters, the publication of the first of his policy articles, as well as disputes over the registration of candidates.

The first ten days have not visibly altered the situation. When viewed against the backdrop of current social tensions, the campaign can be described as tranquil. There is the familiar chatter, and the televised debates have not provoked, and are unlikely to provoke, a public response unless the main character appears on the stage.

Meanwhile, tensions have been growing and are likely to come to a head in the last two weeks before election day, but not thanks to the presidential hopefuls. Zyuganov, Mironov, Zhirinovsky and even Prokhorov have nothing new to tell the people. Following the current trends, they are mostly criticizing the incumbent authorities, denouncing them in an attempt to benefit as much as possible from the anti-government sentiments. But the public attention is not focused on them; it is focused on the battle between the non-registered opposition, fueled by the disappointment of the middle class and the youth, and Vladimir Putin, who is continuing to work in the post of prime minister.

Are there common elements to the election campaign in Russia and the European system of campaigning?

The first days after the official opening of the election campaign in Russia – before it moved on to the next stage, a show of force in the streets – took place as usual. The competition of who can make more promises is unlikely to win over many voters. The presidential candidates are taking part in TV debates in order to address the electorate directly. This form of interaction between the government and the opposition, although with a Russian twist, is similar to typical European methods. The challenge of the protest rallies adds a little pep to the campaign.

A new element in this campaign is the articles which Vladimir Putin, to whom people in the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg are appealing, has formulated as an action program. But this is not enough, as he outlines problems without paying sufficient attention to their solution. On the other hand, it is not programs but personalities that act as the driving force in election campaigns. Moreover, the media is seriously influencing the outcome of this battle. It is no longer enough to focus on televised debates; candidates also need to work actively using social networks. But it is still too early to expect this in Russia.

Have the February 4 rallies influenced the course of the election campaign and changed its slogans?

These rallies, which have set the tone for the campaign as a whole, have showed that the candidates’ supporters must prove their strength and express their support in the street. The old methods are no longer effective. If Putin wants to take back the initiative, he needs to be more open and audacious. His headquarters realized this almost too late. But now that he has taken up the challenge, he will not lose the streets to the opposition. It is even possible that Putin will descend to earth amid growing tensions and, as it sometimes happens in Europe, will join his supporters in the street.

Putin must respond to criticism before the election, not just talking about reforms but also taking practical steps to reaffirm his commitment to honest elections and the fight against corruption. At the same time, considering the critical attitude of the international community, the struggle for legitimate elections should at least end in a tie, which would give the winner a firm mandate for the coming difficult months and years.