On Thursday, April 28, the Valdai Discussion Club presented the Valdai Paper "The Iranian Deal: Opportunities and Obstacles for Russian-US Cooperation" by Richard Weitz and Andrey Baklitskiy.
On Thursday, April 28, the Valdai Discussion Club presented a Valdai Paper, written by Richard Weitz, Senior Fellow and Director of the Hudson Institute Center for Political-Military Analysis, and Andrey Baklitskiy, director of the Moscow-based PIR Center Russia and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Program, titled "The Iranian Deal: Opportunities and Obstacles for Russian-US Cooperation".
During the presentation, Baklitskiy said that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran deal, signed on July 14, 2015, is the first-ever example of lifting sanctions, introduced under the UN Charter Chapter VII, without a war. At the same time, he pointed out that the JCPOA is a rather fragile agreement, as it is not legally binding. He referred to the failure of the 1994 Framework agreement between the US and North Korea and proposed to examine the circumstances which could prevent implementation of the Iran deal.
The upcoming change of the US administration can be one of such circumstances, Baklitskiy said. According to him, if a Democrat wins the election, he or she will stay the course. As for the Republican candidates, they have all spoken out against the Iran deal, although once in the White House, the Republican president could change his stance.
Additionally, Israel or Saudi Arabia could decide to torpedo the Iran deal by lobbying in Washington, if they feel a growing threat from Hezbollah or Houthi rebels in Yemen, allied with Tehran.
During the discussion that followed, the Valdai paper authors answered the question about the possibility of making Middle East a WMD-free zone. Baklitskiy said that an international conference dedicated to the issue was long overdue, adding that the stance of Israel, which neither admits nor denies having a nuclear arsenal, is a serious problem. Weitz, in turn, said that in order to take part in such an initiative Israel needs to have military superiority over its potential enemies, which it believes only nuclear weapons can ensure.
While discussing the possible dangers for the Iran deal, Weitz said that Russia is one of the parties, which are most interested in its viability, because it will be the major participant in any Iranian civil nuclear programme. In addition, he stressed that the work on JPCOA demonstrated that US-Russian cooperation persists despite contradictions on other issues. In turn, Baklitskiy said that Russia and the US are the principal guarantors of the deal, although the talks were conducted in a 5+1 format and all participants were formally equal. If serious problems with the implementation of the deal emerge, they will be solved by means of the US-Russian cooperation, he concluded.
