On January 19, 2016, the Folketing (Parliament) of Denmark hosted a meeting of representatives from the Committee on Foreign Affairs and Committee on Defense of the Parliament of Denmark, together with Russian experts. The meeting included a speech by Ivan Timofeev, director of the Valdai Club’s "The transformation of the Euro-Atlantic institutions: scenarios, risks and opportunities" programme.
In his speech, devoted to the influence of the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential election on the prospects for Russian-American cooperation, Ivan Timofeev noted the increasing role of the political will of leaders in international relations. According to Timofeev, this is the result of international institutions no longer being able to systematically resolve accumulated issues.
"All of this is a sign of the deep international transformations. The phenomenon of Trump is clear evidence of the growing importance of the personal factor in conditions of stagnating institutions, "Timofeev said.
However, Donald Trump is not a sovereign dictator, he is the president of the US, limited by Congress, bureaucracy, corporate interests, public opinion and other checks and balances.
"This means that in his policies, the new US president will be forced to start from the already existing track of Russia-US relations. Leaving it would be extremely difficult, even with Donald Trump’s ability to break the mold and go beyond the norms," Timofeev added.
However, the Timofeev noted, Trump's victory opens a window of opportunity for dialogue with Russia, and this window is much wider than it would have been if Mrs. Clinton won.
"This is not because of some special love that Donald Trump has for Russia. This is because of a different vision of the priorities and objectives of the United States. In this system, the priority is high, for example, for the concern about the growing military and political role of China, the prospects of the Iranian nuclear deal, the distribution of the economic burden in the field of security between the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia. Russia's role is important. However, a confrontation with it will limit the ability of the US to resolve its issues. Therefore, the new administration may deliberately try to attempt dialogue and to improve relations, with clear and pragmatic goals in mind," Timofeyev said, adding that the Russian side is also a willingness to talk, without serious damage to its relations with other partners.
Many have fear or excessive optimism, expecting some "great deal" between Russia and the United States.
"These fears and hopes associated with the Ukraine issue. Some are afraid that Trump will turn against Ukraine in the name of the normalization of relations with Russia. Some are waiting to bargain and find a mutually beneficial transaction. It seems to me that the prospects for such a deal should not be exaggerated. The Ukraine issue is extremely complex. To some extent, it is a black box, in which a number of mechanisms are simply not under the control of Moscow, Washington or Brussels. This means that a single deal will not solve this problem," Timofeev said.
According to Timofeev, frustration from the possible failure of such deal could trigger a new round of controversy and mutual restraint. The price of this scenario, which is equally undesirable for Russia, the United States and Europe, is high. It means the dissipation of diplomatic resources, an increased risk of a nuclear conflict or the escalation of military incidents and a lack of coordination in dealing with common issues such as international terrorism.
"To avoid such a scenario, you need to be ready for a marathon, not a sprint. A series of successive micro-deals on common issues, but not a big single deal. Our conflicts have gone too far. Their solution will require a long and painstaking work," Timofeev added.
Timofeev concluded, noting that the role of the European allies in this process can be extremely important. It would also be in the interests of Europe to promote the consistent reduction of tensions in US-Russian relations.
The event was organized by the Centre for Military Studies at the University of Copenhagen. It also discussed issues including Euro-Atlantic security issues, the fight against radical Islamism, the new US administration's potential foreign policy, issues of academic cooperation, security in the Baltic Sea region, and conflicts in the post-Soviet space. On the Russian side, in addition to Ivan Timofeev, the meeting was also attended by Sergey Markedonov Associate Professor at Russian State University for the Humanities and Maxim Shepovalenko, leading researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
