Latin America: High Expectations or Reality?
Valdai Discussion Club Conference Hall (Bolshaya Tatarskaya 42, Moscow, Russia)
List of speakers

On 27 November 2019, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted an expert discussion on crises and protests in Latin America. According to Oleg Barabanov, programme director of the club and moderator of the discussion, some have begun to compare these events with the "Arab spring". But how valid is such a comparison? What are the reasons for the protests? What social processes are they caused by? How should external forces react? The experts discussed these and other issues.

Alexander Shchetinin, Director of the Department of Latin America at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, expressed concern about recent events in the region. According to him, some democratic regulation is part of the normal process of state development, but the ideological component of politics has sharply strengthened in its current manifestations. “This is a very negative trend and, in our opinion, not the most correct development of events,” the Foreign Ministry representative said. - It is always in our interests to ensure that Latin America is strong, politically united and economically sustainable. We maintain a normal political dialogue and economic cooperation with all governments in the region, and we will continue this line further. ”

One of the reasons for the unrest, according to the speaker, is intervention by the United States, which seeks to reshape the region and make it more controllable. To this end, Washington set about bringing an end to ‘undesirable’ regimes, sabotaging integration projects and strictly imposing the neoliberal recipes. “However, the world has probably turned out to be more complicated than these simplified schemes. The policy of sanctions strangulation failed, the offensive against the government of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela failed, the Cuban government is very firm in its position. A simplistic view of the region is a big mistake. In this vein, the most important thing is to listen to the region, its life and real problems, respect its diversity and adhere to the realities that exist there,” Shchetinin concluded.

Sergey Brilev, President of the Bering-Bellingshausen Institute for the Study of both Americas, agreed with his theses, noting that the processes taking place in Latin America are “multi-vector and multi-layered” and require accuracy from journalists and authorities. The root cause of the protests, he said, is the gap between democratic institutions and the real problems of people. “Today we face a situation where the institutions of democracy have ceased to solve the problems of society, which does not perceive a democratically elected government as a source of solving problems. In Latin America, we see what will happen in the world as a whole, since there these issues are more quickly brought to the surface of the discussion,” Brilev said.

According to Brilev, among the particularly disturbing aspects is racial confrontation, especially in Bolivia. “The outside world should not drag the Latin America to the side of any countries or blocs - it is necessary to contribute to the preservation of civil peace there. Now the region deserves maximum caution and a respectful attitude,” he said. “For me, a ray of hope is a report from Chile about a constitutional referendum, but, unfortunately, in a number of countries we see that things are not going that way.”

Andrés Serbin, Executive President of the Regional Coordination Centre for Economic and Social Research (CRIES), emphasised that the problems in the region are structural. “At one time there was a commodities boom in Latin America, followed by social problems associated with the rise of the middle class. Overstated demands and hopes appeared. When this boom ended, a deep sense of dissatisfaction appeared, and the political elite could not meet the expectations of the population. What we are observing now is connected with the inability of the ruling elites to cope with this transition period, which could be the beginning of a new phase in the establishment of economic and social relations,” the speaker said.

Serbin identified some of the most problematic factors. First, these are persistent inequality, inability of the ruling elites to cope with necessary reforms, and weakness of democratic institutions. At the time being, two other essential components of the situation appeared: that is corruption, which causes discontent among the population, and the emergence of the military as a political force - it does not matter whether it is a ‘coup d'etat’ or pressure on elites. A certain role is also played by the exaggerated expectations of external players regarding Latin America - in particular, that the region could make a greater contribution to the global economy.

Summing up the discussion, Alexander Shchetinin agreed with Serbin's words about the importance of a new social contract and the search for a balance between different groups - whether social or ethnic ones. However, the main thing now is to "remain grounded in reality, evaluate real events and not impose any recipes from the outside."