The security situation in Afghanistan is worsening each year despite considerable efforts by the international community. The United States and a number of its allies continue supporting the Kabul government . The situation is compounded by the country’s internal political and constitutional crises.
Instability in Afghanistan is forcing its neighbors to closely monitor the main political tendencies in the country and be ready for any eventuality. First of all, Tajikistan remains the most vulnerable to the destructive events in its southern neighbor. Today Dushanbe is focused on cooperation with the Kabul authorities. However, if the political crisis completely paralyzes the central government of Afghanistan, Tajikistan can begin negotiations with individual members of the anti-government armed groups or to support friendly warlords. For Russia the successful Tajikistan policy toward Afghanistan guarantees stability in Central Asia.
The report analyzes in detail the reasons of the instability growth in Afghanistan and threats that to the Central Asian countries. The authors also analyze Tajikistan’s approaches for preventing threats from Afghanistan, such as the special measures to protect the Tajik-Afghan border, infrastructure projects in the border areas, cultural cooperation. These and other questions will be raised during the discussion.
Ivan Safranchuk, associate professor of the Department of Global Political Processes of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia; member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy
Andrey Kazantsev, Director of the Analytical Center of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia
Andrey Sushentsov, Programme director of the Foundation for Development and support of the Valdai Discussion Club, head of the analytical agency "Foreign Policy", Associate Professor of MGIMO-UniversityWorking language: Russian.