The election of Emmanuel Macron as President of France will not lead to any fundamental changes. Macron is a deft politician who has given quite a lot of promises. He will be oriented toward real politics, seeking solution of the essential issues the European Union is facing. The recent French election has been rather dramatic, but this is not because of Macron’s personality. The reason is that the situation is very complicated and the problems are very real.
These problems are related to migration, economic development and attitude to the European Union. After Brexit, the European Union will have to change, no matter if it wants to, as well as to rethink some of its moves and ponder on whether it has any agency.
Therefore, I believe that no rapid change will take place. Donald Trump’s victory at the US presidential election was believed to be harbinger of changes, which have not yet materialized. The same is true with Macron: the old policies will continue. The old agreements and the old problems are still in place.
Recently, Angela Merkel was in Russia. She can be critical toward many actions of the Russian Federation, but she nevertheless recognizes that it is necessary to interact with Russia, it is necessary to discuss common problems. Without Russia, many problems cannot be solved. Therefore, I think that nothing will happen at once due to Macron’s victory. Another thing is that Macron and Merkel face a colossal set of challenges, including the changing situation in the world, and the serious social conflicts, which are very sensitive for almost all countries, and not only in Europe. There are a lot of challenges, technological, humanitarian and political. These challenges will have to be solved, they need to be discussed.
So far, we have no clear vision of who will be in Macron’s team, and how the new cabinet will be formed. Moreover, we should not forget that parliamentary elections are coming, so I would like not to put the carriage before the horse. The French establishment is very sophisticated and rich of clever and energetic people.
During this election campaign, it was noted how powerful are various communities created by modern means of communication. They largely influenced the fate of these elections. There are a lot of people, who are analytical and determined, thinking about the future of France.
In the end, an interesting composition of the government, that will include independent, new people, which France has, cannot be ruled out. France is a country rich in political culture, and the recent elections confirm it. French sociologists wonderfully predicted the result of the elections’ first round.
The French political elite was able to coordinate and concentrate, despite all of its internal squabbles. Because of that, there will be no lack of intellectuals and politicians who can solve France’s current problems. It is difficult to guess whom Macron will choose, particularly as he has not yet talked about it.
It is too early to say what the right-wingers have accomplished in France. They may even accomplish more. Especially as Le Pen does not represent the entire right wing, she represents a certain part of it, and not the biggest one at that. The thing is that Le Pen herself has accomplished a lot. She is fulfilling her dream, which was to be accepted into the French establishment and stop being an outcast. The fact that debates between Macron and Le Pen took place says a lot. This never happened before. She undoubtedly achieved colossal success, no matter what the final election results were. She will not stop being part of the French establishment.