Valdai Club

A real democratic alliance would begin by committing its members to first do no harm. Stop encouraging or even acquiescing in coups or lesser anti-democratic actions by governments it supports financially, diplomatically, or militarily. Stop trying to bend politics in other countries to install governments that serve the interests of foreign corporations rather than their own people. Stop trying to interfere in elections in other countries with financial support for parties, propaganda, or advisors, Valdai Club expert Richard Lachmann writes.

Are the deaths and economic hardships enough to produce enough political pressure to force government officials to enact new social programs and to finance those with taxes on the rich? It is too soon to say for sure.

Popular demands could force some elites to make significant concessions and that, in turn, would create splits between elites forced to compromise with non-elites and those in other countries who are able to continue with neoliberalism. Covid-19 could disrupt the current stable global alliance of elites all committed to neoliberal policies and create sharp national differences that will produce global divisions and elite conflicts, writes Valdai Club expert Richard Lachmann.

The US economy has been expanding since June 2009, in the longest period of unbroken, if slow, economic growth in US history. But when the Trump bubble inevitably bursts, will Democrats get caught holding the bag? And what will that mean for US politics? Economic expansions in capitalist countries cannot last forever. And the front-loaded tax cuts sustaining this one, passed by the Republican Congress in 2017, will start to expire right after the 2020 election.

If Trump is reelected, we can expect another four years of confrontation between the US and Iran. Trump’ racist hatred of Obama and resulting desire to undo every Obama achievement will continue.

The final outcome of the coup will be determined by the balance of forces. On the one side are the rightwing parties, the rich Bolivian elite that wants to regain its privileges, the military and police, and the governments of the US, most of Europe and Latin America. On the other side are the majority of Bolivians who approve of the reforms that Morales instituted during his three terms as president.

In the long-term Trump’s betrayal of the Kurds will make it hard for the US to recruit allies in future wars. The US, like the imperialist countries of past centuries, depends on locals to do much of the fighting and most of the administering in territories it conquers or seeks to indirectly control.

It is too early to predict with any confidence what will happen to Trump. The biggest unknown is whether there will be any further evidence of criminal acts or non-criminal but impeachable behavior by Trump.

Brexit is a symptom not a cause of the political cynicism and paralysis that is afflicting so many Western democracies. The catastrophic consequences of a hard Brexit could discredit Johnson and the Conservatives, although perhaps only after the next election.

Actors certainly are more convincing when they believe what they are saying, and Trump’s racism comes across as more sincere than did Nixon’s or Reagan’s and certainly more than Bush senior’s.