Valdai Club

France is now at a crossroads, as evidenced by a number of symptoms. The traditional elites are discredited as never before, and are perceived by the majority of the population as “divorced from reality and the Earth”. At the same time, the institutions of the Fifth Republic are under question, and there are even calls to change the Constitution and establish a Sixth Republic, writes Valdai Club expert Arnaud Dubien.

What is the “West”? Is there still the West as such - in light of Britain’s exit from the EU and the US drift towards unilateral approaches? This question is of concern to many now - mainly in Old Europe. If initially the European Union was created out of fear of the USSR, now it has to dissociate itself from the United States.

On August 19, Emmanuel Macron met with Vladimir Putin in the summer residence of the French president. The format was unusual, with press conference held at the beginning, rather than at the end of the summit. The most important statement made on the French side was Macron’s words about the need to “bring Russia back to Europe” and that such a return is in Europe’s own interests.

Will the relationship between Moscow and Paris reboot in the nearest future? There is much evidence in favour of this assumption, given the latest attempt. On June 24, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is visiting France, where he is to meet with his French counterpart Edouard Philippe. These talks will be the first talks at the level of the heads of government since Jean-Marc Ayrault’s visit to Moscow in late October 2013. Discussions will be held partly in Le Havre and will be dedicated primarily to economics. There are rumours that French President Emmanuel Macron, who currently chairs the G7, plans to visit Moscow in July to meet Vladimir Putin. On April 18, the French head of state sent the Russian President a five-page letter through his special envoy Jean-Pierre Chevènement. Apparently, this letter contains some proposals on overcoming the dead-end in bilateral relations and Russian-European relations in general, which are better than they were in spring 2014.

The configuration of the political system in France continues to change, although it could freeze after the 2017 presidential election. Earlier, Macron managed to “kill” the Socialist Party, and on May 26 he managed to “kill” the Republicans. Although politically he is weakened, he leads his policy of "devastation" successfully.

Мany experts believe that if Macron’s supporters do not win during the European Parliament election on Sunday (they probably won’t), then it can only spur the protests and give them a second breath in their original form.

The French want an elected king rather than simply a president. Emmanuel Macron has managed to return the festive aura that it lacked under so-called “normal president” Francois Hollande to the presidential office. Head of the French-Russian Analytical Center “Observo” Arnaud Dubien describes changes in France during the first year of Macron’s presidency.

In general the first 100 days of Emmanuel Macron in the presidential office are perceived in France as quite successful. But the first difficulties have already appeared, as evidenced by recent French public opinion polls.

The strikes in France will go on, getting more and more radical. The government will use force and wait for the summer vacation season to defuse public sentiments.

French political life is becoming more right-leaning. This shift is evident from the media headlines, from the sentiments in French society, from the political agenda, and even the political programme of Hollande and his cabinet.