Valdai Paper #45: Russia-Turkey Relations and Security Issues in the Caucasus

Disagreements may deepen on Ukraine and the Crimea, as well as on the problems in the South Caucasus. The author refers in his article to one of the key security issues in 2016. Russia and Turkey remain for each other the major trading partners, but their regional interests seriously differ on Syria.

Disagreements may also deepen on Ukraine and the Crimea, as well as on the problems in the South Caucasus. The four-day conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in April 2016 revealed that truce in the area is tenuous. It is possible that this kind of "trial of strength" will be the norm of the regional security. Given the strategic nature of the Azerbaijani-Turkish and Armenian-Russian relations, as well as special Russian interests in the Caucasus, there is a high risk of further escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The article discusses possible scenarios and ways to avoid the most dramatic of them.

About the author:

Sergey Markedonov, Associate Professor, Department of Regional Studies and Foreign Policy, Russian State University for the Humanities, Russia.

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