Summary of the RSPP Report “Russia–US Economic Cooperation In Turbulent Times” (Russian and English versions in one PDF file)
Despite the secondary role that economic ties have traditionally played in U.S.–Russia relations, as the confrontation that has been raging since 2014 (and is likely to continue for a long time to come) and the sanctions, the United States is and will remain an important economic partner for Russia for the foreseeable future. The true volume of trade – and especially investment – ties could be several times larger than official statistics indicate and it would appear that the United States is among Russia’s top five trade and economic partners (although officially it is in 6th place).
Russia’s substantial dependence on the United States in certain sectors of the economy (metallurgy, engineering, aviation, finance, ICT) persists, both in terms of exports and imports. It is difficult to curtail imports and exports entirely within a short period of time. Gradual diversification is necessary. First of all, this would involve reducing the role of the U.S. dollar in settlements between Russia and third countries and creating measures to protect Russia’s relations with third countries from U.S. sanctions. With the understanding that this diversification will take years to achieve. There is also an indirect negative dependence on U.S. extraterritorial sanctions that is detrimental to Russia’s relations with third countries.
Russia’s financial dependence on the United States is of particular importance. This dependence is a consequence of the fact that a significant part of Russia’s national wealth is made up of exports, is denominated in dollars and is even stored in U.S. deposit accounts (it was previously stored in the U.S. national debt). What is more, in recent years, Russia has become a part of the American technological platform and, accordingly, the need to continue to use U.S. technologies. It is unlikely that Russia will be able to get away from either quickly. What is more, Russia is still interested in obtaining American technologies for the sake of modernizing the economy and attracting capital from the United States.