Russia and Saudi Arabia appear to be in the midst of resetting relations. The recent meeting between Vladimir Putin and the Saudi defense minister, Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman Al Saud, where they discussed energy cooperation, mutual investments suggests that there has been a breakthrough in the relationship.
According to media reports, 25 Russian companies are interested in investing in agriculture, industry, healthcare and education projects in Saudi Arabia. Although information about the planned projects is scarce, it is clear that Saudi and Russian businesses, as well as politicians, have shared interests in several areas. Another important factor at play is the ambition of the young Saudi prince, who has shown more political independence than is customary in the Saudi hierarchy.
This does not mean that there are no differences between Russia and Saudi Arabia, or that Riyadh would agree to reduce oil production to boost prices, which is of crucial importance for Russia, or change its stance on Syria. It only means that there is a rationale for Russian-Saudi rapprochement, which would help them achieve objectives despite a number of differences.
Saudi Arabia’s stance on Syria differs radically from that of Russia, as Riyadh is supporting radical Sunni groups that have been fighting to overthrow President Assad. Saudi Arabia’s desire to topple Assad is clearly part of its wider confrontation with Shia Iran. The destruction of the Iraqi military and of the regional counterbalance it provided has liberated Iran’s Middle East policy. A stronger Iran with better relations with the West is a nightmare for Riyadh.
Iran’s influence in Iraq and Syria, its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, indirect meddling in Yemen and influence with Shia communities in Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, make it the main geopolitical rival of Riyadh, although their confrontation may look like a simple aggravation of the Shia-Sunni sectarian divide. But in fact it is a life-or-death battle between the region’s major powers, a zero-sum game where no compromise is possible. Some scholars even describe the confrontation as existential.
Russia sees Iran as an important partner not only in the Middle East but also in the Caucasus and Central Asia, where Iran respects Russia’s interests despite elements of rivalry. However, Russia does not want Iran to go nuclear. Moscow’s stance at the talks between Iran and the P5+1 group of international mediators has been a major factor in the progress made toward a deal.
At the same time, Russia is concerned about the possibility of Iran growing closer to the West, especially in light of rising global tensions. Saudi Arabia could use this concern to its advantage.
Russia and Saudi Arabia also differ on Yemen. Russia is urging a rapid end to the war, economic recovery and reconciliation between the warring groups. But Saudi Arabia would like Russia to take a harder line on the Houthis, whom it views as Iran’s proxies in Yemen. Moscow abstained on UN Security Council Resolution 2216, which demanded that the Houthis withdraw their forces from Sana’a, the Yemen’s capital.
Another factor affecting Russia-Saudi relations is the support that Islamic foundations with connections to Riyadh provide to Wahhabi radicals in the Caucasus and the Urals-Volga region of Russia. Since Muslims make up 14 percent of Russia’s population, Moscow cannot close its eyes to the possible growth of these foundations’ destabilizing influence in the country.
But the promise of tactical cooperation could outweigh potential concerns. Stronger ties with Saudi Arabia would not only be in Russia’s economic interests and give it access to Saudi funds, which is vital in view of Western sanctions. They could also demonstrate that Russia can be friends with any country, allowing Moscow to play a more active role as an intermediary in numerous local conflicts.
There are several other important reasons why rapprochement is attractive to both Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh is justifiably disappointed by the policies of US President Barack Obama. Seeking to strengthen its positions, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its international ties, including with Russia, to balance its relationship with the United States and to reduce its dependence on its key ally. Visits by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to Russia and President Putin to Riyadh would add powerful symbolism to the progress in Russian-Saudi relations. It is significant that King Salman refused to attend a summit meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council at Camp David in May.
Considering that Russia’s relations with the United States and the West as a whole have deteriorated to near Cold War levels, the Middle East is a region where it could take coordinated action. If Russia bolsters its position in the Middle East by improving relations with Saudi Arabia, it could become an indispensable partner in the fight against common threats and challenges, which is critically important in view of its limited opportunities for cooperation in other spheres.
