Where the Escalation of Korea Tensions Can Lead?

09.11.2017

It is obvious that the Trump administration is now at a dead end on the Korean issue. Militant statements and even a demonstration of strength (such as putting on an alert of the US Louisiana-based strategic aviation) cannot continue indefinitely. Sooner or later the question will arise - and what then? Kim Jong-un will not make concessions under the American pressure - he has nowhere to retreat. Then President Trump will have to move from words to deeds (that is, to a large-scale military and, possibly, even a nuclear conflict on the Korean Peninsula) - or to step back himself.

Although in his speech in the South Korean parliament on November 8 Donald Trump again resorted to bellicose statements (“Currently stationed in the vicinity of this peninsula are three of the largest aircraft carriers in the world, loaded to the maximum with magnificent F-35 and F-18 fighter jets. In addition, we have nuclear submarines appropriately positioned.”), in any case he was forced to say, that Washington stands for peaceful resolution of the crisis on the Korean peninsula.

The current South Korean president, Mun Zhe Ying, who won the presidential election a few months ago, is a firm supporter of the dialogue between the North and South Koreas. Xi Jingping, leader of the People's Republic of China, is also for the dialogue. China remains a firm supporter of the joint Russian-Chinese initiative to resolve the situation on the Korean peninsula, which provides freezing the North Korean nuclear missile program in response to the suspension of joint military exercises of the United States and South Korea. This attitude of the APR leaders means that Trump's militant position does not enjoy international support. As we know, the American establishment is also not enthusiastic about the prospect of an escalation of the conflict with the DPRK.

Under these conditions, it can be assumed that at some point Trump can come to the conclusion, that in his political interests it would be better to try to muffle the propaganda noise around this conflict, since the further inflating of the latter does not bring more political and propagandistic dividends.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

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