The clash of Russian and Western interests has given rise to a geopolitical battle. German politicians are trying to leave all doors and windows open for dialogue with Russia. Moscow does acknowledge this, and Germany is probably the only country with which it is ready to discuss European security.
Ukraine is sinking deeper and deeper into a serious economic, political and ethnic crisis. Alexander Rahr, research director of the German-Russian Forum, advisor to the President of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce and member of the Valdai International Discussion Club’s Advisory Board, speaks about the consequences of the crisis, possible solutions, and the roles of Russia and the West in determining Ukraine’s future in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta .
What is the German line on the Ukrainian crisis?
During the financial crisis Germany cemented its leadership role in Europe. Germans have started feeling responsible for security in Europe, including Ukraine. Therefore, if Germany sides with Russia now, it will lose the support and trust of other EU members that are demanding tough sanctions against Moscow. In other words, Berlin must consider the opinion of all European countries on the Ukrainian conflict.
That said, German politicians are trying to leave all doors and windows open for dialogue with Russia. Moscow does acknowledge this, and Germany is probably the only country with which it is ready to discuss European security.
Do you, as a European, support the calls within the EU for new sanctions against Russia?
Sanctions against Russia will provoke retaliatory sanctions. So sanctions would also deal a blow to the EU economy, not just Russia’s. The countries that have developed close, mutually beneficial ties with Moscow and invested heavily in the Russian economy will be the hardest hit.
Do you agree that the blame for the Ukrainian crisis lies with the West?
There are several causes of this crisis. First, in the past 25 years Ukraine has failed to become a strong, economically developed country. Moreover, it strongly depends on Russian energy and on external factors politically and economically. In its current state, Kiev is unable to make sovereign decisions.
Second, Ukrainians have failed to become a united nation. No other European country is as divided as Ukraine.
Third, Ukraine has become an object of the geopolitical struggle between Russia and the West. The current conflict started last fall when the EU was pushing President Viktor Yanukovych to sign an association agreement that would automatically bar Ukraine from joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union. If Ukraine had departed for the West, it would have entered NATO in several years. Russia will never accept such a prospect.
The clash of Russian and Western interests has given rise to a geopolitical battle. If we lived several centuries ago we would have witnessed an actual battle, but we live in the 21st century when war is impossible. Still, the geopolitical tensions are a fact. The bad situation is made worse by the failure of the sides to find a common position that would lead to stabilization in Ukraine. Unfortunately, time is not on Ukraine’s side. The Ukrainian authorities are losing control over the country; the economy is collapsing and the army does not exist. Ukraine is riven by a profound ethnic conflict between its western and eastern regions. This is a very dangerous and protracted crisis.
But surely there is a way out of this crisis…
The federalization of Ukraine is the only way out of this crisis. But federalization must not become the first step towards the country’s breakup, and it must be supported by all sides in the conflict. It will decentralize power, of course, but the regions will receive more responsibilities and rights. Thus, eastern Ukraine will be able to advance economic relations with Russia, and western Ukraine likewise with the EU. The same applies to culture, language, education and even how history is taught in school.
However, I’d like to emphasize that federalization must be reinforced by all sides. They shouldn’t allow Ukraine to fall apart the very next day just because its western and eastern regions couldn’t come to terms on something.
What is likely to happen if Ukraine rejects federalization?
We live in the 21st century and nobody wants war in Eastern Europe. So Russia, the United States, the EU and Ukraine will sit at the negotiating table and agree on a joint stabilization package. Crimea is not a subject for discussion anymore. It has already become part of Russia and the West understands that it cannot be returned. I think all sides will come to understand the need for federalization during talks. This would be the ideal scenario.
The worst-case scenario is Ukraine’s bloody collapse and complete decline. The country would be simply ungovernable.
What role will Western financial support play in stabilizing Ukraine?
The West has decided to help Ukraine for several reasons. First, it doesn’t want Ukraine to collapse. Second, the EU and the United States fear that the Ukrainian crisis may lead to war. And the main point is that the Europeans are scared out of their wits by the prospect of the Russian Empire’s restoration. So the West is ready to blow the last of its money on Ukraine just to prevent it from falling into Russia’s orbit.
That said, a realistic analysis suggests that the West simply doesn’t have the money to restore Ukraine. Both the United States and the EU can only grant loans that Ukraine will have to pay back. It will have to implement painful economic, political and social reforms. Many people will lose their jobs; hundreds of plants will shut down and the country will be swept by a wave of protests. So loans are not the best option.
I think there is only one possible solution – joint assistance to Ukraine from the West and Russia. Russia’s role is especially important because it holds all the keys to Ukraine’s stabilization or destabilization.
Has the West been shocked by how Russia has asserted its interests in Ukraine?
Yes, the West has been in a state of deep shock. Many in the EU are just coming to realize that the referendum was organized and conducted in a matter of weeks and that Crimea has become part of Russia before the very eyes of the West, which has failed to react in any way.
Will the Ukrainian crisis lead to global changes in geopolitics?
This is a local conflict for the time being, but everyone understands that the destiny of many European regions that are seeking self-determination will depend on its outcome.
When the conflict dies out, the sides will start lengthy and serious discussions on the future system of European security because the old one doesn’t work anymore. The West will have to admit that its policy towards Russia and Ukraine was not quite correct. It will also have to admit that Russia has become the dominant factor in Europe. I think EU and Russian leaders will hold numerous important conferences on the formation of a free trade area from Lisbon to Vladivostok. They will also discuss mutual security issues. This would be the most constructive outcome, because sanctions and isolation can only take us back to the Cold War.
One more important point – the world order will also change. Everyone will realize that the world has become multipolar, that different countries have their own concepts on key security issues.
This interview was originally published in Russian in
Rossiyskaya Gazeta
.
