The appointment of John Bolton as the National Security Advisor will allow Donald Trump to control some directions of the foreign policy. Washington will face a difficult choice between the retreat and escalation of the conflict with groups of both rivals and allies of the US.
The appointment of John Bolton as the National Security Advisor, as well as replacing Rex Tillerson with Mike Pompeo as the Secretary of State, will initially reduce the bureaucratic resistance to Donald Trump’s foreign policy projects. The latter would probably like to tighten the terms of the deal with the powers mediating the dialog with Iran, continuing to balance on the brink of a conflict with North Korea until Pyongyang agrees to nuclear disarmament. Bolton sincerely shares this view. If the system of arms control between Moscow and Washington collapses (the INF and START III treaties), Trump and Bolton would converge in evaluating the risks of arms race with Russia. These two are more likely “turned on” than “sobered” by the demonstration of the new weaponry by Russia, which are created, among other things, to surely overcome the American missile defense systems. They think they could “win” the arms race.
Regardless the preferences of his advisers, president Trump would try to control the most important issues of the US foreign policy directly. At the same time, Trump is aimed at “strategic games” rather than power policy for its own sake. For a period this “game” is likely to unfold around the Iranian and North Korean issues. If Trump seriously wishes to reach agreements with Russian president Vladimir Putin on a wide range of issues, Bolton will have to prepare some options for such a “deal”. And if (which is unlikely) Trump will succeed to persuade Russia to jointly press on Iran and North Korea – it is most likely that he wants to meet Putin for this purpose, – John Bolton will be instructed to provide, for example, negotiations on a new Russian-American arms control treaty. It could include some restrictions to the anti-ballistic missile systems for both sides.
In general, the first onslaught of the Trump-Bolton team on Iran, North Korea and, possibly, China and other states could bring some fruits. Obviously, having not any reliable arsenal against the US nuclear deterrence, Kim Jong-un tries to show his will to cooperate with South Korea. China is ready to make certain concessions to the US in terms of trade; the EU countries are interested in maintaining an alliance with the US in the sphere of security, being ready even to increase their defense budgets. However, an attempt to “develop success” through increased pressure could lead to a sudden failure of other players to comply with US demands. Washington will face a difficult choice between the retreat and escalation of the conflict with groups of both rivals and allies of the US.
