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A Trojan Horse of the West in Libya?

Developments in Libya are accelerating. Currently, Libyan people, who are suffering war and torn by terrorism, dream only with security and decent life, different players are making efforts to draw a certain way for the future of Libya that guarantees their interests. Although an agreement was reached in France between Fayez Al-Sarraj and Khalifa Haftar in July 2017, Libya is still far from real consensus that would pave the way toward stability.

Marshal Haftar, who is truly fighting terrorism, is becoming widely popular among Libyans, as he has achieved significant success on the ground and managed to liberate the east and south, at least 80% of Libya's land area, from terrorist forces and imposed discipline and security to a large extent. He is now supported by the majority of four social forces: The supporters of the former regime, the non-Islamic opposition to Gaddafi regime, those who have no political attitudes and just want safety and good living, and the Salafis who are fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and support Haftar.

Suddenly, an unknown person, Abdul Basit Igtet (also known as Abdul Basit Qutait), appeared as a candidate to succeed Al-Sarraj in heading the government. He is a businessman who is said to be a resident of the United States. He was never part of the political process in Libya, did not live the ferocity of war and did not taste the bitterness of terrorism. Some sources indicate that he will enter Tripoli as, Al-Sarraj before, next week (September 25th). Although Igtet is a virtually unknown figure both inside and outside Libya, there are factors that push him strongly to the top of power.

First, he is backing by Misurata forces, with which Qatar and the United States. They are the same forces that supported Al-Seraj previously and forced him into the Libyan scene. It is known that the main problem that hinders the national reconciliation in Libya is Misurata. It is an incubator for many armed militias (Khalifa al-Ghawail, Salah Badi, Suweihi, and others). 

Misurata is the de facto ruler of Tripoli that has two million people (a third of the Libyan people). It is also the center of Islamic and terrorist groups. Many of their followers are paid with salaries of $1,000 or more per month. They have huge amounts of money and weapons seized from the Gaddafi stores and their regional supporters. There is no way to reach an understanding with Misurata, and they will remain an obstacle to any peace settlement or agreement in Libya.

Second, the suffering of Libyan citizens and the unprecedented deterioration of living conditions helps people hang on to hope even if it is illusion. Within that context of difficult life, people are ready to accept any promises. The social division complicates the situation more. Within each social group or tribe there are those who support Haftar and others who support Islamists. Tribes no longer have the same ability to control their members, and many of them no longer adhere to the leader (sheikh) of the tribe, especially those who were involved in extremist and terrorist movements.

There is a need to increase the support for Libyan stability from regional and international actors, primarily Egypt, the UAE and Russia. The time has come for Tunisia and Algeria to move more effectively to root out the terrorists originating from Libya and not just clean up their territory and make them return Libya. This will not contribute to the long-term stability of the two countries.

There is no doubt that fixing the port of Benghazi will help a lot to improve living conditions for the people by allowing the movement of goods and foodstuffs with reasonable prices. It also seems necessary to think about what beyond Haftar, the man is 75 years old. It is true that he is the man with the current key role. But it is important to think strategically about what will come after the next few years. If the West plans to replace the al-Sarraj, the forces supporting stability in Libya must move strategically and effectively as well.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.