Valdai Club

Whether the U.S. military assistance is critical to Israel's security and military edge in the Middle East or not remains a point of contention inside Israel's security establishment. The Middle Eastern turbulent scene is molded by a conjunction of new factors: the end of previous regional order, the lingering civil war in Syria, the Syria refugee crisis, and the emboldening of non-state terrorist groups.

Just a little while ago Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama met for the first time since the Iran nuclear deal and Netanyahu's speech to the Congress opposing the Iran accord that triggered a historic low in US-Israeli relations. The meeting between two presidents took place 13 months after their last meeting of October 1, 2014.

During a two-and-a-half-hour session, Obama and Netanyahu put their arguments over the Iran nuclear deal, the Palestinian question, and the Israeli settlement issue aside. Netanyahu was pleased by Obama's support of Israel's right to self-defense against terror and his softened stance on the Palestinian issue. Israel’s Prime Minister also displayed signs of good will by restating Israel's long-term commitment to a two-state solution. Meanwhile Secretary of State John Kerry deployed efforts to ease tensions between Palestinians and Israelis around the Temple Mount. In addition Netanyahu underlined Israel’s "common front" with the international community against Iran's potential breaches to the nuclear agreement and expansion of terrorist activities across the Middle East.

It appears that the meeting’s main agenda was Israel’s request to renew the US-Israeli "Memorandum of Understanding" which defines a 10-year framework for U.S. military aid package to Israel. The last memorandum was signed in 2007 and is scheduled to expire by 2017. It consisted of $30 billion US military aid to Israel (it was initially $2.8 billion a year and currently amounts to $3.1 billion a year). The Israel Defense Forces prepared a wish list that would raise U.S. allocations for the decade starting in 2018 from $30 billion to $50 billion. Israel requested a military assistance of $5 billion a year in the hope of negotiating a $4.5 billion military assistance package per year. Israel is still uncertain about the continuity of U.S. military and political support and currently a US-Israeli committee reviews the specifics of Israel's wish list.

Israel's wish list includes additional F-35 stealth fighter planes (Israel already ordered 33 F-35 and would like to acquire a total of 75 F35). It also includes MV-22 Osprey battle transport aircraft (Israel's Defense Minister Ya'alon ordered 6 of them but did not purchase them for lack of funds) and restocking of munitions such as the U.S.-produced Tamir missiles launched by the Iron Dome anti-rocket system. In addition to the military aid provided within the framework of the US-Israel “Memorandum of Understanding,” Israel expects a continued U.S. military support for the development of its own missile defense system such as the David's Sling Weapons System Stunner Missile.

Whether the U.S. military assistance is critical to Israel's security and military edge in the Middle East or not remains a point of contention inside Israel's security establishment. While the U.S. aid is certainly a bonanza in light of Israel's rapidly changing security threats, some voices inside Israel assert that Israel can deal with these challenges, as volatile and unprecedented as they may be, without a sustained US military assistance.

As a background to US-Israeli future cooperation lie growing concerns about international and Middle Eastern security. The Middle Eastern turbulent scene is molded by a conjunction of new factors: the end of previous regional order, the lingering civil war in Syria, the Syria refugee crisis, and the emboldening of non-state terrorist groups. By the scope of its attacks and its shifting strategy (from regional to global terrorism), ISIS has turned into a threat of global strategic significance (the U.S., Russia, and France have fought the Islamic State but not in a sufficient measure yet). Furthermore, the Iranian threat and the risk of violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action are still on the table, making Israel’s concerns and strategic preparation all the more legitimate and timely.

As for the global arena, it is influenced by the international willingness to advance a political settlement in Syria and ultimately reach a political solution to the lingering Ukrainian crisis. It is also impacted by the massive wave of refugees from Syria and other Middle Eastern countries to the European Union which has shaken European security, political map, and economies. Most recently, the spilling of Middle Eastern-grown Islamist terrorism over Russia and Europe made the Russian Federation and E.U. countries equal targets of global Jihad. Defeating ISIS has become a top global priority which requires a united and forceful intervention of both air and ground forces. This new configuration could create some space for a joint international coalition against ISIS and the rise of a coordinated US-Russian-European front to contain and stop the global terrorist threat. There is, at this juncture, a realistic possibility of reaching a political solution in Syria, while cooperation between Russia and the U.S. looks (as of now) more likely.

Russia’s involvement in Syria creates a new strategic paradigm in the Middle East and the international arena and has already impacted the power balance on both regional and global levels. This situation creates a new reality for Israel as well. The State of Israel positively sees the development of Russian-Israeli cooperation and dialogue. Russia’s military involvement in Syria was followed by bilateral political and military coordination. Yet there are different opinions among various Israeli circles about Russian activities in Syria and their implications for Israel. On the negative side – some developments in Syria have problematic consequences for Israel, especially if members of the “Radical Axis” stay and expand in Syria under Russia’s cover. On the other hand, many in Israel believe in Russia’s constructive attitude towards this challenge and in Russia’s interest of cooperating with Israel and other countries in responsibly managing the situation in Syria and initiating a common fight against Islamist terror.