The developments in Syria and the Middle East as a whole are truly a miracle that was not envisioned two years ago, when Russia started its operations in September 2015. At that time, terrorists raided Syria and the entire Middle East was in imminent danger.
Russia has released Syria from the clutches of terrorism. Without the efforts of the Russian air force and Russian logistical support, Syrian army would have never regained 90% of the precious Syrian territory from terrorists so that millions of Syrians now live in peace. As peace settlement process is ready to begin, Russia may reduce the size of its military presence in Syria and bring back home some of its forces, which are no longer needed, as it happened in mid-March last year.
During his meeting with President Putin, Bashar al-Assad looked good and his smile reflected optimism concerning Syria’s future and his role in that future. He was deeply grateful to Russia and President Putin for rescuing Syria from darkness and no future. With Russia, Syria and the Arab world are more secure and have a more stable and prosperous future. It seems that al-Assad, who still enjoys popularity among Syrians, will continue to be the main player in the Syrian political scene, due to the change in the balance of power on the ground in the light of successes achieved by the Syrian army with Russian support. The continued division and disagreement among the Syrian opposition also contribute to that.
President Putin’s personal enormous effort to reach a consensus with other international and regional power over the upcoming settlement in Syria has notably helped to pave the way and overcome many stumbling blocks that hampered peace in Syria. Direct phone calls from President Putin to Donald Trump, Saudi King Salman, Egyptian President el-Sisi, Emir al-Thani of Qatar and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu greatly help pushing forward a settlement with given agenda and steps. It is logical that the new constitution will come first, followed by presidential and parliamentary elections. This coincides with launching the process of reconstruction.
In light of the Putin-Trump declaration in Vietnam and the Security Council Resolution 2254, there is a set of principles and determinants that will govern the political process in Syria. The most important is the secularity of the Syrian state and the integrity of its territory. There is neither division nor federalism. There is no place for terrorist groups in the future of Syria. They will be eliminated to the end. Only the Syrian armed groups have an opportunity to reintegrate themselves into society and surrender their weapons through the National Reconciliation Center in Hmeymim. The Syrian political opposition also has a real opportunity to participate constructively in shaping the Syrian future. It is subject to their choice. They will either be with the Syrian state, rebuilding the modern democratic Syria, or they will be bypassed.
On the other hand, al-Assad’s meeting with President Putin preceded the trilateral summit of the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran on the settlement in Syria. He sends a message that Moscow is not only expressing its position, but also speaks on Syria’s behalf. This is this due to full Syrian confidence in Moscow as a fair and faithful ally that will preserve Syrian interests as much as possible. What is happening in the Riyadh platform, successive resignations from it, and the withdrawal of a number of extremist figures from the scene, will provide a positive atmosphere for the Congress of the peoples of Syria in Sochi, although it may be delayed until the final status of the Syrian opposition, and determining who is really ready to join the train of the future that has already started to move.
Russia’s role in Syria will not end with peaceful settlement. Actually, it will continue to be the main ally for Syria. It is important to empower the Syrian army and develop its defense capabilities to stand up to terrorism and threats facing Syria. That will be along with a developmental role in reconstruction. Iran will also play an important role in this regard. Uncertainty and doubt will continue to dominate the Turkish position and intentions towards Syria. These suspicions are increasing in the case of the United States and the West. However, the spread of terrorism and its threat to the security of the West and Turkey may be a harsh lesson for both, prompting them not to repeat mistakes and not to play with the fire of terror again.
