Moscow had every reason to lift its own ban on the delivery of S-300 missiles, when efforts were launched to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue. Their deployment will make Washington confident that Israel will not attack Iran with bombs and missiles on its own. The last thing the Americans want is to be drawn into an armed conflict with Iran.
On April 13, 2015 President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order lifting the ban on transit through Russian territory and also the transfer to the Islamic Republic of Iran of air defense missile systems S-300. This makes it possible to implement the contract, signed in 2006−2007, on supplying Iran with five S-300 PMU-1 air defense systems. This contract had a price tag of $800 million when it was signed. The failure to carry it out due to Moscow’s broad interpretation of the relevant UN Security Council resolutions prompted Iran to file a complaint totaling $4 billion with the International Court of Arbitration in Geneva against the Russian arms company Rosoboronexport.
Moscow had every reason to lift its own ban on the delivery of S-300 missiles in late November 2013, when efforts were launched to resolve Iran’s nuclear issue on the basis of a joint action plan. But it did this only after April 2, 2015 when Iran and the six international mediators (five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) agreed in Lausanne on the basic principles of the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program. It would seem that Moscow complied with all of its informal commitments to Israel, the United States and some other countries. However, Moscow was subjected to a barrage of criticism from its partners, who thought for some reason that they could continue pushing Russia to act in their interests. Some even tried to blackmail Russia by threatening to supply the Ukrainian army with weapons. Obviously, these attempts are counterproductive and could lead to the contract’s implementation before the end of this year.
The Russian industry cannot produce five S-300 missile systems in a short timeframe. Moreover, S-300 PMU-1 and S-300 PMU-2 are no longer produced because they have been upgraded to S-400 systems. Under the circumstances, Russia will have to deliver these systems from its industrial or Defense Ministry reserves. It can also withdraw from duty some of the deployed S-300 systems and transfer them to Iran.
Iran would be better served to upgrade its air defense with S-300 Antei-2500 missiles that are capable of hitting ballistic targets moving at a speed of up to 4.5 km per second. They are able to intercept Israeli Jericho ballistic missiles with a range of up to 4,000 km. Russia could supply Iran with four S-300 missile systems and one S-300 Antei-2500 for the protection of its most important facilities. However the latter system is much more expensive than the S-300 PMU-2.
S-300 systems are supposed to protect certain areas of Iran and be protected themselves by Tor-M1 air defense systems. Only in this case will the S-300 systems be effective. In addition, Iran may receive other auxiliary systems, including long-range radars that can promptly identify an air attack and effect a transfer from combat control to a special mode of operations in order to hinder their destruction by anti-radar missiles.
Calculations conducted earlier show that about 120 aircraft of different types may take part in a probable Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear and military targets. If Saudi Arabia does not allow Israeli aircraft to land on its territory, they will have to carry additional fuel, which will substantially reduce their combat load. The loss of about 20 aircraft will cause unacceptable damage to Israel. It could reduce the damage by using attack drones, but the loss of 20 drones would still be critical for Israel.
This is why Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is so adamant in his attempts to prevent the delivery of Russian S-300 missile systems to Iran. Paradoxical though it may seem, the delivery of these missiles (which are no problem for America anyway) is fully in line with US national interests. Their deployment will make Washington confident that Israel will not attack Iran with bombs and missiles on its own. The last thing the Americans want is to be drawn into an armed conflict with Iran at a disadvantage.
