In 2011, Russia’s total military exports exceeded $12 billion. India accounted for one third of this figure. On average, India buys between 27% and 35% of Russia’s total military exports depending on the year.
Major arms contracts may be signed at the Russia-India summit in December. In an interview with the
Valdai International Discussion Club, Konstantin Makienko, Deputy Director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategy and Technology, speaks about the pending agreements and the prospects for expanding Russian-Indian cooperation.
What are the key bilateral issues that are expected to be resolved at the Russia-India summit in New Delhi?
Most likely, the sides will sign the long-awaited contract to supply India with 42 kits for the assembly of Su-30MKI fighters at the plants of India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). This agreement will represent the next stage in the implementation of the large-scale program for the design, supply and licensed production of these aircraft in India. Earlier, the sides signed contracts for the supply of fifty Su-30K/MKI fighters in 1996-1998, a contract for the licensed production of another 140 fighters in 2000, and two contracts for the manufacture of 58 fighters in 2007 under the same program. Including the supply of engines and other spare parts, which is likely, the cost of the agreement will amount to $2.5-3 billion.
How would you characterize Russian-Indian military cooperation?
In 2011, Russia’s total military exports exceeded $12 billion. India accounted for one third of this figure. On average, India buys between 27% and 35% of Russia’s total military exports depending on the year.
How does Russia see its relations with Pakistan in the context of Russian-Indian cooperation? What can you say about Dmitry Rogozin’s recent statement on this issue? When asked about potential arms sales to Pakistan, he replied that Russia “does not deal with India’s enemies.”
India is currently pursuing a very clear policy of diversifying its arms suppliers, thereby decreasing the share of Russian exports on its market. India’s Western suppliers account for the most of the increase in its arms imports. I believe this gives Moscow the right, both morally and politically, to step up its military-technical cooperation with Pakistan. Other major arms suppliers for India (France and the United States) have long been most active in dealing with Islamabad in this sphere.
Russia’s position on not making deals with “India’s enemies” looks more and more archaic. If Delhi believes it possible to work with everyone, Moscow should follow suit, all the more so since India’s other partners do this too. I think it would be premature to discuss supplying Pakistan with such major arms as fighters and submarines, but we could talk about the sale of support systems, such as helicopter transports and helicopter gunships, for that matter. In any event, they will be used mostly on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border rather than against India. That said, if Russia continues to be squeezed out of the Indian market, we could think about further boosting bilateral military-technical ties with Islamabad, such as supplies of MiG-35 fighters, Mi-28 combat helicopters, Mi-26T2 helicopter transports, IL-78 MKI refueling aircraft and Il-76-90MD military transports.
