Valdai Club

Russia will keep the intensity of its foreign policy unchanged in the new year. But it should at least wipe clean its side view mirrors.

Last year, Russia roared onto the global international scene and has since remained conspicuously active on it. Moscow has dropped its cautious approach to foreign policy, and has proceeded to revise the status quo in accordance with its interests. Russia’s strong offensive policy has achieved much, but in the process Russia has absorbed at least two painful blows: when it incorrectly assessed the potential of the popular unrest in Kiev in the winter of 2014 and when it failed to take proper account of the risks of a military provocation by Turkey during the Syrian operation.

Although Russia’s foreign policy remains quite prudent, all vehicles have a blind spot in their side view mirrors. The Ukrainian and the Turkish crises have occurred precisely because the emerging threats were in such a blind spot. The driver could have made proper manoeuvres to avoid them, but failed to notice they were there. We can’t rule out the possibility of more threats brewing that Russia hasn’t noticed yet.

In 2016, Russia and the United States will be one step closer to each other - again, as in 2013, due to Syria. Moscow and Washington approved a political settlement program for that country and reached a general agreement on the draft UN Security Council resolution. This is a major achievement if you think back to what the parties had to go on at the early stage of the talks. Not much is left to accomplish, with the exception of having to convince local leaders that this is the scenario Syria will be following from now on. And this is a tall order, but Russia, as it turns out, is not in a hurry. Vladimir Putin said, "in principle, we can train there for a long time without making a substantial dent in our budget.”

Second, one should expect the Western front to remain without changes. The conflict in Donbass will remain frozen in 2016, mainly because Kiev is not willing to settle the dispute amicably. No one in Russia is talking about the sanctions and their connection with implementing the Minsk-2 agreements, as these two issues never go hand in hand in Russia. The conflict remains unresolved, but a continued freeze is by far not the worst scenario. As Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko used to say, a hundred years of talks is better than one day of war.

Russia’s assessment of ISIS has taken on new overtones. This terrorist group was downgraded to a lesser threat category and its supporters in the region, according to Vladimir Putin, are nothing but "cannon fodder operating under Islamic slogans and who are, in fact, being manipulated in a game based on economic interests, the trafficking of oil.” Fighting terrorism is on the list of critical threats to Russia, but combating smugglers is hardly an urgency. Especially so, since not only the Islamists and Turkey, but also Iraqi Kurds and other players, some of which are unknown, are part of this smuggling game. This is probably why Putin shared his doubts about the advisability of building a permanent military base in Syria, saying “setting down roots there and getting ourselves heavily involved in this situation does not make any sense.”

Saudi Arabia’s actions to counter Iran's interests in Syria may also be in one of those blind spots. This week, Riyadh announced the creation of its own coalition to fight ISIS. Putin responded by saying, "We aren’t even thinking that this alliance may be directed against Russia." Of course, it isn’t, but wiping the side view mirrors may still be a good idea.

The conflict with Turkey over the downed Su-24 plane may be the most consequential event. The takeaway from Russia’s statements regarding Ankara is that the two countries have ceased to be partners and have become opponents with differences that go far beyond the current incident. Even though Vladimir Putin has made it clear that economic contacts with Turkey will be maintained, local military clashes between Moscow and Ankara cannot be ruled out. There are several theaters where they may erupt. President Putin made two important observations at an open meeting of the Defense Ministry board in early December. Speaking about the 2016-2020 Russian Defense Plan adopted in November, Putin urged his colleagues to update the plan as "the situation in the world is rapidly changing." Second, Caucasus-2016 is the only large-scale military exercise planned for next year.

Apparently, Russia will keep the intensity of its foreign policy unchanged in the new year. But it should at least wipe clean its side view mirrors.