Renewed Focus on Security Makes Theresa May’s Position Stronger Ahead of Elections

The Manchester attack came at a time when Theresa May was trying to recover from a serious misjudgement on social and health policy. That mistake – which called into question the Conservatives’ claim to competence – is now likely to be forgotten, as the focus switches to security, writes Mary Dejevsky.

Flags are flying at half-mast once more in much of Britain, after an attack on mainly young concert-goers in Manchester killed 22 people and injured at least 59. The police said they were certain that the cause was a suicide bomb, while also warning against any premature conclusions about the bomber. But the method, the target – a place where a lot of young people, especially girls, were enjoying themselves – and the timing (on the third anniversary of the murder of a British soldier, Lee Rigby, in east London), all pointed to a link with Islamic extremism.

The attack is the most costly in terms of injuries and loss of life since the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005. It is also the first time since the Glasgow airport attack in 2007 that explosives have been detonated. The use of knives, or – in the attack on Parliament in March – a car, suggested that efforts made to curb access to any materials that could be used to make a bomb had been successful. This will be a source of particular concern to the authorities.

One consolation might be that the British public continues to show admirable resilience in the face of terrorist attacks. It is also developing an ever more effective voluntary response. Within minutes of the Manchester bombing, people were using social media to trace family and friends and offer lodging and transport to strangers in need.

The timing of this atrocity, however, gives it a particular political aspect beyond its likely origins in Islamic extremism. It comes right in the middle of the UK’s general election campaign. Could it influence the outcome?

It is doubtful that whoever perpetrated the attack intended to affect the election result in any particular way – after all, the most predictable response from the government will be heightened security. The aim was more likely to express anger, attract attention and advertise a cause. There is likely to be an effect, nonetheless.

All the polls show that the Prime Minster, Theresa May, and her Conservative Party, have a big lead over the main opposition – the Labour Party led by the left-winger, Jeremy Corbyn, and a Conservative victory looks certain. But it matters how big a victory it will be, because a main purpose of calling the early election was to gain a stronger mandate before the negotiations with the European Union over Brexit.

The Manchester attack came at a time when Theresa May was trying to recover from a serious misjudgement that had diverted the spotlight away from Brexit and on to social and health policy. That mistake – which called into question the Conservatives’ claim to competence – is now likely to be forgotten, as the focus switches to security. And security is an area where the Conservatives, and Mrs May as a former Home Secretary, are traditionally strong. A big majority for the Conservatives now looks more feasible than it did 24 hours ago, even if polling day is still more than two weeks away.

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