Amidst the mounting Western political pressure and new Western economic sanctions against Russia, Putin’s alignment with China’s President Xi Jinping got stronger. While this has improved Russia’s leverage with the West, it puts Moscow in the danger of becoming a junior partner for Beijing in East Asia. This has increased the imperative for an independent Russian outreach to the Western Pacific.
President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Singapore for bilateral engagement with the Lion-City as well as participation in the East Asia Summit is once again raising hopes for a productive engagement with Pacific nations. If similar expectations in the past were not realized, Russia and East Asia now have greater incentives to develop mutually beneficial cooperation.
As Russia’s problems with the US and Europe turn increasingly intractable, Moscow has a good reason to take a fresh look at the Pacific. Meanwhile East Asia, caught in the crossfire between America and China, would like to welcome a more active Russia that could contribute to the stability of the region.
Singapore, which in many ways is the hub of Southeast Asia, offers Putin an important gateway to expanded commercial and technological engagement with the region. The bilateral economic agreements that he signs with Singapore could provide a powerful impetus to other countries in the region to strengthen bilateral relations with Russia.
As it restructured its economy following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inevitably turned its attention to East Asia that had become an economic powerhouse by the 1990s. Russia became a member of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in 1998.
The ASEAN, which was becoming the regional fulcrum for the promotion of stability and security, sought to draw in Russia. Moscow participated as an observer at the first EAS in 2005 and joined it as a member in 2011 along with the US. Putin had hosted the APEC Summit in 2012 and launched with some fanfare a pivot to Asia.
However, Russia’s intensifying confrontation with the US and the European Union (EU), especially after the 2014 crisis in Ukraine, appeared to compel Russia to focus on Eurasia – the former Soviet space straddling the regions between Europe and Asia.
Amidst the mounting Western political pressure and new Western economic sanctions against Russia, Putin’s alignment with China’s President Xi Jinping got stronger. While this has improved Russia’s leverage with the West, it puts Moscow in the danger of becoming a junior partner for Beijing in East Asia. This has increased the imperative for an independent Russian outreach to the Western Pacific.
As the prospects of a potential deal with US President Donald Trump seems to recede and Moscow’s dependence on Beijing grows, Putin appears to be taking a fresh look at Russia’s possibilities in the East. Four incentives seem to nudge Putin towards the Indo-Pacific.
One is economic: as Western sanctions bite, Asian countries can lend greater breadth to Russia’s economic partnerships. Many of them can help Russia expand its options in developing its far eastern regions.
Second, unlike the EU, the ASEAN has a tradition of non-intervention in the internal affairs of other countries and could offer a comfortable political setting for Putin. Few ASEAN states have an incentive to raise questions about Ukraine with President Putin.
Third is military. Russia has been exporting arms to some important countries in the region besides India and Vietnam, including Malaysia and Indonesia. Russia has modernized its Far Eastern military command, rebuilding its Pacific fleet and has begun to project power into the Pacific. Used wisely, Russian military power could become an important variable in the evolving military dynamic.
The fourth is strategic; participation in the ASEAN-led forums reinforces Putin’s efforts to reclaim Moscow’s once prominent role in the Korean Peninsula, normalise relations with Japan and engage the US outside the Euro-Atlantic framework. Those dealing with Asia policy in Washington are not blind to the importance of Russia in shaping a balance of power system in Asia.
For Putin the challenge is to turn the unfolding opportunities in the east into concrete outcomes.
C. Raja Mohan is Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore
