The official election process in the UK will begin after June 7 and end with a vote of all Conservative party members in July, that is, by the end of July a new prime minister will appear in the country. So far, Boris Johnson has the best chances to become the new leader of the Conservative Party and British Prime Minister. Of course, in the troubled waters of intrigues among Tories, everything can change, writes Alexander Kramarenko, director for development of the Russian International Affairs Council. According to him, in the current, critical situation there is only one way out: the one offered by Johnson.
Boris Johnson has already stated that in spite of everything, the country will leave the EU on October 31 this year, that is, whether with an exit deal or without it. The agreement concluded by Theresa May was rejected three times by the House of Commons. In turn, Brussels repeatedly stressed that there would be no other agreement.
Johnson's candidacy was supported by Donald Trump during his recent visit to the UK. He said in an interview with the British media that Johnson and Nigel Farage are his friends (he also met with Farage at the residence of the American ambassador in London). incidentally, Trump supported the demand of Farage to include him in the British delegation at the new Brexit talks, if they take place. Farage’s party won 32% of votes in the elections to the European Parliament.
In the current critical situation, there is only one way out - this is what Johnson suggests. Otherwise, the country faces a crisis which could threaten the legitimacy of the entire political system and even British democracy itself. As Johnson wrote in his column in the Daily Telegraph, in this case the Tories are under “threat of extinction". It was precisely because of the indecisiveness of PM May, who was quick to postpone the fixed exit date from the EU from March 29, that the electorate and donors began to leave the Conservatives and join the “Brexitit” party of Nigel Farage.
So the most likely way out is a Brexit without a deal, but there should be negotiations concerning a transitional period and new relations, most likely with the political and moral support of Washington, which has already announced that it will not leave its closest ally in trouble. Trump promised a “phenomenal” bilateral agreement with London. A second referendum is unlikely, since it could end in the same result and will require another postponement of the exit date from the EU, which requires the consent of partners who, of course, are guided by their own interests regarding the European project's survival. We can assume that the very decision about a second referendum will plunge the country into chaos and undermine the institution of the monarchy, since the Queen will have to approve whatever decision is made by the government and parliament. It should be kept in mind that the final word in the Brexit question belongs to the English, and not to the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Early elections are also unlikely, since the Tories will definitely lose them. Another question is how Labour will behave, given their promise to fulfil the mandate of the 2016 referendum. Through her negotiations with the opposition, May also “disgraced them” in the eyes of the electorate. Instead of taking control of the situation (as the Republicans did by uniting around Trump), the government allowed the reorientation of the entire political system, with its polarisation between the Brexiteers on one side and the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats and Greens on the other. Meanwhile, the country’s leading political parties have been sidelined, and everybody understands this well.
I think that the main cause of the current crisis is the deterioration of the political system and the establishment itself, which was not able to fulfil its tasks amid at a sharp turn in its history, and this affects the interests of the West, the domination of which is ending.The British electorate, with its instinct for re-sovereignization, understood this, while the elites continue to live in the world of the past. The Anglo-Saxons themselves (Trump and Brexit) are actually bringing a close to the global project of the West, which some call globalisation and others think of as the “liberal order” or Pax Americana.