No Ceasefire in Syria Any More

26.09.2016

The diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis will continue, although the chances of the crisis settlement or the notorious "Partition of Syria" are very small.

New ceasefire in Syria is quite impossible because of the mutual distrust of the defense ministries and armed forces of Russia and the United States, especially after incidents in Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor, military expert Vladimir Yevseyev, Director of the  Public Policy Research Center, told www.valdaiclub.com

"The United States repeated the same thing they did in February this year, in fact they did not fulfill their obligations," Yevseyev said.

According to him, the diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis will continue, although the chances of the crisis settlement or the notorious "Partition of Syria" are very small because of the upcoming elections and change of the presidential administration in the United States.

"What else can negotiate the leaving US administration, with no real ability to control the situation? Washington can dream about the division of spheres of influence, but in fact the Americans today have quite a weak attitude to this", Yevseyev said.

According to Yevseyev, the incident in Deir ez-Zor, which caused death of 62 Syrian soldiers in the combat zone with ISIS, is a provocation on the part of the United States.

"It was impossible to confuse the direction of the strike. There runway was clearly visible, and it was easy to navigate properly," he added.

Yevseyev also questioned the assertion that the humanitarian convoy was attacked in Aleppo by Syrian or Russian aircraft, noting that in the area of ​​the incident was also the American Predator UAV.

The military expert rejected the argument that the incidents could be a part of the so-called American plan "B", implying the partition of Syria into zones of influence. He noted that at present the United States cannot reach an agreement with the parties, which include the Turks and the Kurds.

"The United States have a lot to talk about this topic, but how they will control this process? Syrian Kurds consider the Americans to be traitors; the Turks also do not trust the Americans. Then, whom the Americans can rely on, negotiating a division of spheres of influence?", Yevseyev said.

Speaking about the Turkish army’s advance in the north of Syria, Yevseyev said that the Turks at the moment will seek the removal of Kurdish forces from Manbij. He added that the siege and attempts to take the city by Turkish forces would entail a great number of victims among the Turkish soldiers, and the Erdogan administration and Turkish society are not ready for it.

"The number of Syrian [Kurdish] self-defense units is about 45 000 people. Turkey does not have such troops in the region. They will have to confine themselves to what they can do. In these circumstances Russia will simply have to intervene as a mediator," Yevseyev said.

He also called the argument about Turkey's march against the ISIS "capital" a bluff, repeating that Turkey currently does not have enough troops to advance in this direction.

"The capture of Manbij by the Turkish army will lead to a significant loss of personnel. For Erdogan it is an undesirable development of events, he will try to push through the Americans, that the Syrian Kurds will leave Manbij themselves, but I'm not sure that the Syrian Kurds, knowing that the Americans betrayed them, will do it, " concluded Yevseyev.

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

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