Medvedev promised that his political system, unlike Putin’s hierarchy will become extremely transparent, elastic and internally complex. However it seems that everything is going exactly the opposite way.
The Russian society has changed. The dissatisfaction with the situation within the country has increased. Demand for stability, which has been the foundation of the recent policies is rapidly decreasing. The need of systematic changes is growing, while the “manual” control over the country has depleted its capacity and turned into a major hindrance. It’s quickly becoming apparent that the country can’t be governed by the means of personal agreements and connections anymore. Back in the day President Medvedev criticized the situation and the policies of his predecessors that led to such situation in his article “Russia, Forward!” and promised to make required changes, saying that he knews exactly, how to make Russia a successful state. Unfortunately the results of his presidency don’t inspire much optimism so far and majority of important issues still haven’t been dealt with.
First of all, an effective mechanism of governing has not been created yet. Medvedev promised that his political system, unlike Putin’s hierarchy will become extremely transparent, elastic and internally complex. However it seems that everything is going exactly the opposite way. Rejecting the “semi-paralyzed semi-state” of the 90’s the country ended up paralyzed again and the authority belongs to the non-constitutional centers of influence concealed from the public’s eye just like before. The promised “transparency” manifested in the growth of power of non-public but very influential individuals, who control whole branches of economy, ministries and officials and command the budgets and staffing on behalf of the government. The state approach is being replaced by personal approach, when the interests of certain individuals are considered instead of interests of the whole state. The leadership, devoting most of its attention towards the upcoming election refuses to counter such practices. Alas, having declared the beginning of modernization it is not capable of bringing its promises to fruition.
Second: the rule of law still hasn’t been achieved, thus one of the major problems of Putin’s presidency, when the law was enforced in a selective manner and was “adjusted” to private interests and certain situations, still persists. Today nothing changed much, as we can see in case with “Domodedovo” Moscow Airport. By putting partial blame for the January bombing on the owners of the airport even before the official investigation, which contradicts the canons of law, Medvedev allowed the “siloviki” and competition to openly bash the owners. The former used it to cover their own incompetence by shifting the responsibility on the “Domodedovo” management, while the latter used it to further their purpose of taking over a successful enterprise. This is a very negative signal to businesses. War against corruption, that has become systematic long before Medvedev, is being replaced by unsystematic hunt for mere small-time crooks. Its political limits are becoming more and more apparent.
Third: the attempts to improve the image of Russia for foreign investors after the Yukos case have been a major failure. Security of personal property hasn’t improved and corporate raiding is flourishing. The president wrote in his article that the country needs an inflow of money and technologies from the outside, and he dedicated a lot of his time to personally persuade investors from different countries to invest in Russia. However the reality speaks better than words – the cases with “Arbat Prestige”, “Evroset”, rejection for a retrial in case with Hermitage Capital showed clearly that Medvedev follows in Putin’s footsteps in that issue and that it’s better for business to stay away from such country. Especially since the guilty parties in none of the cases were punished. The recent babble of Attorney General in Duma that entrepreneurs who have lost their businesses unlawfully, can attempt to go to court to get “partial compensation for moral damages”, only showed that prosecutor’s office doesn’t wish to uphold and protect the law. And its decision to deny foreigners from being able to hold executive positions in companies within the transportation industry goes to show who really sets the rules: the president or “siloviki”. As a result, according to Alexei Kudrin, direct foreign investment into Russia in 2010 decreased 1.5 times in comparison with 2009 and in January of 2011 the investment in fixed assets went down 80%.
Fourth – the people agreeing with the points of the president’s article never properly organized together. The organizational means for their union weren’t ever provided. Some officials openly contradict the leader of the country, damaging his public image, like the minister of transportation who told the president that the latter didn’t understand the pricing of building roads. Other ministers tell Medvedev that he is accusing wrong people in failing the Defense Order and a number of officials and congressmen defiantly refuse to publish their declarations. Removal of government officials from the Boards of large companies is followed by a shameless introduction of “elite” children, relatives and friends to those positions. The law-enforcement reform is basically a change of the first two letters in the title of policemen and the president still haven’t sacked a single head of security ministries despite their obvious failures and massive political demand for their removal.
All this results in Medvedev looking like a much truer successor to Putin than many would have hoped for, expected or feared. He acts and is perceived as a president of “Putin’s Russia” with all the necessary “birthmarks”, ones that he actually criticized in his own article. Of course this is an intermediate recap, the impressions from what the President has or hasn’t achieved by the second half of his term. On one hand there are political realities and on the other – certain processes can’t be forced or hastened, since it would lead to the loss of control. But this control is lost even faster when the government can’t catch up with the dynamics of the society, requirements of global economy and even its own undertakings. Medvedev wrote that he knew what to do. Now it’s time for him to tell us why it’s not working out.
This article was originally published in Russian in the Vedomosti issue #87 (2853) on May 17, 2011.
