Last Sunday, ISIS* fighters captured the city of Palmyra in Syria’s Homs province, which was previously liberated by Syrian forces in March with support from the Russian Aerospace Forces. According to Valdai Club expert Irina Zvyagelskaya, the loss of Palmyra is testament to serious problems in the Syrian Army’s military planning, although it does not mean an abrupt change in the strategic balance of power.
“ISIS has the ability to easily cross the border of the territory it once controlled. It can dissolve among the tribal communities, or into the desert. Because of that, they retain a certain military potential. In addition to that it is the potential that they have: people who are rather well-trained, and capable of conducting military operations,” Zvyagelskaya told valdaiclub.com.
According to Zvyagelskaya, the Syrian army faces serious problems when it comes to organizational challenge.
“First of all, it is composed of poorly-trained young guys: currently they have too many young people. Professionally speaking, they probably can’t compete with ISIS. Of course, the fact that they will continue to suffer defeat on the ground is clear and explained by the balance of forces that has formed in Syria. The more active and professional forces are the Iranians and Hezbollah. But in those places, where ISIS fights primarily against the Syrian army, they have a certain advantage,” she added.
The loss of Palmyra is also a very symbolic event, Zvyagelskaya noted.
“Palmyra is a pearl of world culture. To imagine that these bigots, who will plant explosives on and destroy the remaining monuments is rather difficult and frightening. From this point of view, this is certainly a blow. But from the point of view of the formal balance of forces, the taking of Palmyra changes little,” Zvyagelskaya said.
According to Zvyagelskaya, the retaking of Palmyra will be a difficult task.
“Right now, as Palmyra is being taken, attention has moved more toward al-Nusra**. But at the same time, it has to be understood that if we are talking about Palmyra, there are also limits – the architectural monuments. Bombing can’t be used there, it needs special forces, ground forces,” she noted.
Zvyagelskaya also noted that the struggle against ISIS will take a long time, and it is doubtful that military force will be decisive in defeating it.
“It’s obvious that these people should also be confronted ideologically as well, which is very difficult. They remain attractive to a part of not only the Middle Eastern, but also the European populace. People from Russia and Central Asia join ISIS. The question is why. This is a very serious question when it comes to fighting them. Their myth of a ‘just state’ must be debunked,” Zvyagelskaya concluded.
*The terrorist group ISIS is banned in the Russian Federation.
**The terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra is banned in the Russian Federation.
