Although the map of political powers in Libya is very complicated, four major forces can be identified. Each has its own supporters from military groups, tribes, and international and regional powers.
The first, controlling most of eastern Libya, is Marshal Khalifa Haftar, backed by Tobruk parliament. He is the force that seriously fights terrorist groups. He enjoys the support of Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. Haftar is seeking now to extend his influence to the south and link the south to the northeastern regions under his control. Therefore, he attacked Jafra base in the south of the country, which includes the militias of Saraya Defend Benghazi, gathering terrorists fleeing from Misrata and Benghazi, appeared in June 2016 and related to Mufti Sadiq al-Ghariani. The Egyptian air strikes lately on Derna and Jafra were in coordination with Marshal Haftar to eliminate such terrorist groups.
The other three powers in the west are:
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Fayez al-Sarraj, the Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya and prime minister of the Government of National Accord of Libya that was formed as a result of the Libyan Political Agreement signed on 17 December 2015 (Skhirat agreement). The Al-Serraj government is recognized internationally by the UN, the United States, the European Union, Qatar and Turkey. He is trying to keep himself in a point somewhere between Haftar and Islamic forces, and is supported by forces in fortified areas.
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Khalifa al-Ghawil, head of the defunct Libyan government of the General National Congress, which was elected in July 2012 and ended its term in February 2014. It is the closest force to the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya. On October 15, 2016 and after absence from the political scene since March 2015, Khalifa al-Ghawil declared the return of his government to work from the capital Tripoli and considered it the legitimate government of the country. He is supported by a number of battalions dispersed after the disintegration of the Dawn of Libya forces, which was a broad coalition with a main component from Muslim Brotherhood, and enjoyed the support of the National Congress President Nuri Abu Sahmeen and Mufti Sadiq al-Ghuraini.
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Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, who is backed by the supporters of the former Gaddafi regime all over Libya. He was sentenced to death in 2015 by a court in Tripoli. He was detained by the so-called al-Zintan Revolutionaries Military Council. Some said that was to protect him and keeping him safe. He was lately released as part of the activation of the amnesty law.
In addition to these four powers, there are the terrorist groups that are spread throughout Libya and are moving with caution and strength. They include al-Qaeda, ISIS, Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade, Shura Council of Mujahideen in Derna, and Ansar al-Shari'a that dissolved itself lately in a clear maneuver to maintain its power. Many of these groups are supported by Qatar. The border triangle between Sudan, Libya and Egypt is the most dangerous. It is an incubator for most of those terrorist groups attacking Egypt and Mali.
Given the capabilities, the dominant control of area and tribal support, Marshal Khalifa Haftar is considered to be the strongest among the four major forces, while Al-Ghawil is considered the weakest. The situation in the east is relatively more controllable compared to what is going on the capital Tripoli, which is still suffering from chaos and conflict with dozens of armed militias in the streets. Some of them are loyal to al-Sarraj government, including the group, Tripoli Revolutionaries' Battalion, that attacked Al-Hadaba prison where the most prominent former officials of Gaddafi regime on May 27.
Although Haftar is the most important leader, he cannot unite Libya by force, given the strength of the adversaries, the balance of power among them and the limited international support for him and embargo on arming the Libyan army.
Peaceful settlement and consensus are therefore the best solution. However, there are some challenges to that. The first is the opposition of some internal forces to such understandings. Among them those who attacked the Barak base, killed dozens of Haftar troops and destroyed the Haftar—Al-Sarraj agreement reached with Emirati mediation on May 2. The Agreement was to amend the Skhirat Agreement, recognizing the role of Marshal Haftar and call for presidential and parliamentary elections no later than March 2018. However, the attack on Barak base by the Third Force affiliated to al-Sarraj Government destroyed the agreement.
Second, the lack of consensus among international and regional powers is also a major challenge. The role of Qatar and Turkey is very negative. The Libyan tripartite initiative, which includes Egypt, Algeria and Tunisia, is not effective enough. They are more likely coordinate efforts to contain the security implications of the Libyan crisis, terrorism and migration, rather than to resolve the crisis. The UAE’s mediation and hosting of a Haftar Al-Serraj meeting is an important sign to the limited role of the tripartite initiative. Meanwhile, the next trilateral meeting is scheduled for June 5 - 6 in Algeria.
Within the context of all the previous givens, the support of Marshal Haftar by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia is highly important. Parallel to that, it is necessary to push forward the political understanding between Haftar and Al-Serraj as the first step to a wide reconciliation supported by the international and regional powers.
