Islamic terrorism is gaining momentum, and is all about ideological opposition to European Christian values. This is an aggressive young radical ideology that attracts followers across the world. And it will only grow stronger on the world political stage.
The first Valdai Club meeting was held during the tragic events in Beslan in September 2004. Up until the final moment, it was unclear whether a meeting of the club members with Vladimir Putin would take place as promised by the organizers. Eventually, the meeting did take place, and lasted surprisingly long. That’s how the format of a trusted and constructive dialogue between the president and the Valdai Club members began. Club members received an assessment of the situation firsthand from the president, which was considerably different from what Western media were publishing back then. I believe that if it hadn’t been for the dramatic events surrounding Beslan, this first Valdai meeting would have been, most likely, just another routine conference. However, this horrible act of terrorism made clear to all those present the critical importance of deepening dialogue and finding common ground in order to combat Islamic extremism. I think it was precisely the atmosphere of the first conference that started off a whole series of trusted and candid conversations in subsequent years.
Unfortunately, international terrorism has not yet been defeated. It’s more active in the Islamic world than in the North Caucasus or the West. However, the explosions in Volgograd organized by the Caucasus Islamists in the run-up to the Winter Olympics in Sochi, and the Boston Marathon bombings, are a sign that terrorism is still a challenge for us. Thank God, a human tragedy of Beslan proportions has not been repeated, either in Russia or elsewhere in the last decade. Beslan will forever go down in history as the early phase of a new “world war,” with Islamic terrorism playing the main role since September 11, 2001.
I believe concrete steps have been taken to improve security over the past ten years. First of all, Russia has managed to destroy or expel from the North Caucasus international legionaries who fought on the side of the Chechen rebels. This has largely calmed the situation in southern Russia.
However, Russia should have done more to defeat terrorism in the North Caucasus. This region continues to be the poorest Russian region, with high unemployment rates among young people. The plans to build ski resorts and tourism infrastructure in the Caucasus are being implemented too slowly. There are always more important expenditure items in the budget. Peace in Chechnya remains fragile. Dagestan is still faced with the problem of underground terrorism, represented by local terrorists. Clearly, poverty and substandard infrastructure are able to quickly trigger another ethnic conflict. It’s too early to claim that all the lessons of Beslan and Nord-Ost have been learned.
Russia was “lucky” in that the international terrorists who rushed into Chechnya in the late 1990s - early 2000s found other things to do, such as fighting in North Africa, Afghanistan, Syria, Mali, Libya and the entire Middle East. The failed Arab Spring has taught the West to look at fighting Islamic extremism through Russian eyes as well. Western assumptions that “liberal revolutions” and the destruction of old “dictators” can bring a Western model of democracy to these countries were simply naive. Going back to the events of the Middle East, one can’t help remembering the remarks of then US president George W. Bush about the beginning of World War III. After September 11, it was believed that it should be a war of enlightened liberal society against Islamic terrorism.
Despite the conflict in Ukraine, where a new war between Russia and the West, as well as resource wars, are possibly at stake, I believe that the threat of the most terrible and tangible conflict facing humanity is coming from international Islamic extremism. Islamic terrorism is leading the charge of building new lines of conflict internationally. The Ukrainian conflict will sooner or later come to an end, and a consensus will be found both within the country and on its borders. Islamic terrorism is gaining momentum, and is all about ideological opposition to European Christian values. This is an aggressive young radical ideology that attracts followers across the world. And it will only grow stronger on the world political stage.
Fifteen years ago, the global community was genuinely concerned that Islamic extremists would be able to create their own Islamic state in Afghanistan. All military forces were focused toward preventing this, and ousting al-Qaeda from Afghanistan. Now, such a state is being created in the Middle East, destroying Syria and Iraq in the process. If NATO fails to stop Islamists, they will extend their influence to Pakistan, Afghanistan, all of North Africa, and will retake their hold of Egypt and Mali in the future.
In reality, NATO bombings and counterterrorist operations of the Russian security forces in the North Caucasus are not enough to remove Islamists from the political arena. They have learned to use the Internet and other means of modern communication to wage their asymmetric wars. The penetration of Islamic radicals into European societies is a major challenge to Western countries and Russia, forcing them to unite in the face of a common threat.
