Valdai Club

On March 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met with his Japanese counterpart, Taro Kono, in Tokyo. Lavrov’s visit to Japan was a major part of preparations for the Russian-Japanese summit that will be held in St. Petersburg in late May 2018.  

Moscow and Tokyo have different expectations of the upcoming visit by the Japanese prime minister to Russia. Shinzo Abe will above all try to show to the domestic audience that his visit to Russia is a major step towards a peace treaty, and that his meeting with President Vladimir Putin may help settle the territorial dispute, which Japan views as the key issue on the bilateral agenda. However, Russia’s priority is to reach practical agreements on economic cooperation with Japan. But despite these differences, both countries hope that the May summit will give a new impetus to the development of bilateral relations. This resolve explains the two foreign ministers’ business-like and constructive meeting in Tokyo. 

As expected, Lavrov and Kono highlighted economic cooperation on the South Kuril Islands. They reaffirmed their countries’ commitment to implement projects in five areas, including tourism, aquaculture and greenhouse farming. However, a “special regime” for joint economic activities on these islands, which was mentioned in the final documents of Vladimir Putin’s visit to Japan in December 2016, has not yet been created. Also, the underlying principles of this regime are largely unclear. The parties confirmed their mutual resolve to continue talks on visa-free travel for former Japanese residents of the islands to visit their family graves. The first flight was chartered for this purpose last year.

Discussions on ballistic missile defense also revealed a number of differences. The Russian minister pointed out that “Japan along with South Korea is becoming a territory for the deployment of elements of the US global missile defense system which is being rolled out in that region under the pretext of the North Korea threat.” Russia is concerned that Japan is allowing Washington to use its territory as a base for a US military build-up in north Asia under the pretext of countering North Korea.  The Russian minister assured his Japanese partners that Moscow did not see any security threats coming directly from Japan. The main problem is that the Aegis Ashore system, which is part of the US-controlled global BMD system, could be hypothetically used against Russia. Sergey Lavrov pointed out in this connection that the measures taken by the Japanese government to deploy BMD systems on the national territory have prevented Russia’s practical movement towards a peace treaty. In response, Taro Kono said that the system “will not pose a threat to any neighboring country, including Russia.”  The issue of BMD systems will most likely be at the top of bilateral discussions during preparations for Shinzo Abe’s visit in April and May.

Russia and Japan also differ on the issue of the nuclear missile problem on the Korean Peninsula. Lavrov expressed Russia’s concern over Japan’s de facto approval of the planned US military operations against North Korea. In response, the Japanese minister said that regime change in Pyongyang was not their goal. The parties agreed that Russia and Japan should address the issue of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula in close coordination. They have agreed to hold a separate meeting between their countries’ representatives at the six-party talks, which have been suspended for the past few years.

Overall, Russia and Japan appear to be satisfied with the results of the Lavrov-Kono meeting. The ministers signed a dialogue plan of intergovernmental meetings to be held this year and in 2019 to discuss issues pertaining to bilateral relations and the international agenda.