Iran has been a central Russian ally in the Middle East, despite considerable tensions between the two. But by renewing dialogue with the West, the new Iranian leadership has chosen another direction. The shifting terrain in the region creates new strategic, political and economic challenges for Russia.
The Iranian leadership’s change in policy regarding its nuclear program has led to an interim agreement with the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. The six-month deal, the product of intensive negotiations with the six major powers and a secret diplomatic channel between the US and Iran, freezes Iran’s nuclear program, creating time for further negotiations between Iran and the international community on a final, comprehensive agreement.
Iran was forced to the negotiating table by intense pressure that threatened the country with collapse. But the fact remains that Iran is on the verge of becoming a nuclear power. It is already capable of enriching its uranium stockpiles to military grade in just a few months. Iran also has missiles with ranges that threaten the entire region, and the day when Iran can outfit them with nuclear warheads is not far off. It is in Iran’s best interests to peacefully weather this period in which it will be tested, and so there is justified suspicion about its intentions to forgo the nuclear option in the future. Some believe that no deal can prevent it from going forward with developing a bomb if the opportunity presents itself.
In this regard, the interim deal contains a number of substantial drawbacks. It allows Iran to continue low-level enrichment, thus granting de facto legitimacy to Iran’s enrichment program. This is a troubling sign for those demanding the total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Furthermore, there is a concern that the interim deal will be extended, dragging out the negotiations without achieving a final agreement. Easing the sanctions will reduce leverage over Iran, which is vital for advancing negotiations. If the sanctions regime unravels, the Iranian nuclear program will return to full speed.
Unsurprisingly, the interim deal came as a disappointment to US allies in the region, who see it as a US retreat from its support for Sunni states in their battle against Shia forces, as well as a first step in empowering Iran in the region. The deal is interpreted as an expression of changes in the US strategic outlook. By achieving a balance between the opposing forces in the Middle East, the US will be free to shift its focus to other regions. The Sunni states, with Saudi Arabia at the forefront, feel betrayed and abandoned, left to confront the Iranian challenge on their own. They are not only concerned about Iran’s nuclear aspirations, but also its growing involvement in terrorism and the broader Sunni-Shia conflict in the region. However, US recent actions are in fact meant to upgrade its regional status and thereby its global status. It seems that the US doesn’t intend to step back from its dominant position in the region, and its breakthrough with Iran only promises to enhance the country’s overall influence in the Middle East.
The current situation in the region creates new challenges for Russia, a veteran player in the Middle East, and other regional and international actors. Russia has projected renewed self-confidence of late, vying for influence in the region by playing an active role in most regional processes. This comes on the heels of the instability unleashed by the Arab Spring, which eroded most of Russia’s regional assets and sidelined the country along with its radical partners Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. The Arab Spring also confronted Russia with direct Islamist threats from some Middle Eastern states and radical groups. But Russia has been able to seize on the turmoil to improve its international status, and its handling of the Syrian civil war has arrested the decline of the country’s influence in the region. Russia’s deft maneuvering on Syria’s chemical weapons has given the Assad regime the breathing room to maintain power for now, while elevating Russia's international standing relative to the perceived weakness of the US. Meanwhile, Russia has continued to support efforts to resolve the Syrian civil war within the framework of the Geneva II conference.
Iran has been a central Russian ally in the Middle East, despite considerable tensions between the two. Following the uprising in Syria, cooperation between Russia and Iran flourished. Russia became an active partner to the Shiite camp. But by renewing dialogue with the West, the new Iranian leadership has chosen another direction. Throughout the nuclear negotiations that led to the interim deal, it seems that Russia has tried and failed to influence the Iranians. This would be a remarkable US achievement.
Now Russia is trying to take revenge by exploiting new opportunities created by the deal, namely the dissatisfaction of some American partners in the Middle East. Russia has responded to US moves towards Iran by renewing and deepening its relationship with other regional actors, like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Israel. This is aimed at improving Russia’s regional and international status and creating additional leverage in its game against the US. Even if this maneuvering won’t help Russia supplant the US in those countries, it moves Russia further along the path toward becoming a major broker in the region.
That said, the shifting terrain in the region creates, along with new benefits and opportunities, new strategic, political and economic challenges for Russia. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, for example, would be a serious blow to Russia’s interests as an energy producer.
Russia and other regional partners will have to continue to recalibrate their policies as circumstances evolve in the Middle East. One thing is for sure, though – Russia will continue to engage in the international arena and remain an important actor in the Middle East and in the global system. The final chapter has not yet been written.
In conclusion, the interim deal is enormously important, as are the follow-up negotiations on a final deal. It marks the first success in halting the Iranian nuclear program, which, left unchecked, would lead to the development of nuclear weapons. Though not ideal, it has created much needed time and space to find a permanent solution. In any event, it is important to test Iran’s intentions and to not drag out the process by extending the interim deal. The six major powers must retain their leverage to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Given that the collapse of a final deal would push Iran to redouble its pursuit of nuclear weapons, it is essential to ensure that Iran is years and not months away from it by substantially reducing its number of centrifuges and completely eliminating its stockpile of enriched uranium.
