In the Middle East Iran will occupy the place which remained vacant after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Russia could play again a major economic role in the region, but not necessarily political and military one.
There is no doubt, that Syria became definitely a hotbed of the Middle East policy. Contrary to what one might think, the destinies of the world are not determined in Lausanne where last week diplomats joined the fray over the Iranian nuclear dossier. What matters much more is the Russian naval plan to be worked out in talks between Damascus and Moscow. Political analyst Thierry Meyssan, who lives in Damascus, shares his views with valdaiclub.com editor-in chief Alexander Artamonov.
What can you say about Syria, especially in connection with the Islamic State and other Middle East conflicts?
I think that President Assad is fully aware that the problem of Syria is connected with the environment under full and fast reorganization. No doubt that the Syrian Arab army could already win this war three times, but the war still continues! Because an external power organizes the arrival of new fighters or their recruitment in Syria! But most of these fighters are foreigners! The position of President Assad is the following: "We will continue to fight until peace returns to the region! And we know that peace can actually come back in three months because it is the subject of bilateral negotiations between the US and Iran which have lasted for almost 2 years with parallel nuclear talks in Geneva.”
Today the United States has quite another vision, because they have just signed a pre-agreement with Iran. For next 10 years Washington has a plan to divide the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Israel on one side and Iran on another side. The United States accepted that was previously refused, namely the Iranian presence in Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Bahrain! This agreement should be signed on permanent basis with the sanctions lifting on June 30, 2015. Until then, for three months, both sides will try to settle their differences in each of the mentioned countries.
If it really happens, it is both good and bad news for Russia. The good news is that for ten years there will be peace in the Middle East, except perhaps Yemen, that remains outside US-Iran agreement. But there is also something unfavorable to the Russian Federation, because in the Middle East Iran will occupy the place which remained vacant after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. We remember that in the period between the two wars the Middle East was divided between Moscow and Washington! So, now the Russian Federation has to abandon previous ambitions for the Middle East!
However, if there is a regional peace, Russia could play again a major economic role in the region, but not necessarily political and military one.
How would you assess if Syrian port of Tartus becomes the main base of the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean?
This issue was under discussion between Syria and Russia for so many years! Long before this war! I think that the negotiations started between 2004 and 2005. Syrian Minister of Defense General Hassan Turkmani offered to Russia not only the port of Tartus, but also 30 kilometers of coastline if Russia only could decide to have such a naval base in the Mediterranean! However, at that time Russia rejected the Syrian proposal. Obviously, Syria thought that if Russian Navy were present, this would be the best way to avoid war that the United States had already prepared in 2001. At that time, Russia had no fleet in the Mediterranean. Russia was just at the beginning of its Armed Forces rebuilding. And today, when Russia has redeveloped its military power and, in particular, its Navy, it needs the port of Tartus, but it also needs another port in the Mediterranean. So Russia turned also to Cyprus. For Syria it is excellent news. This is a strategic agreement. It is a military link between the two countries. If Russia moves perennially to Tartus, it is clear that it will not let Syria be attacked. And this type of alliance is far stronger than the treaties that we usually see. I stress this because we talk about the evolution of the region, the agreement between Iran and the United States ... And Iran still remains difficult partner for Russia, while Syria, in contrast, has always been an extremely loyal and cooperating partner!
Comment. Devotees of Shiism represent a community based on dogmas which often have nothing common with regional realpolitik. That makes Israel angry. One understands that the Israelis are accustomed to the vicissitudes of the situation since the 6-days War. But the perception of the growing pro-Iranian zone is enough to make life in Tel Aviv more nervous! Anyway Russia can kill two birds with one stone: it deals with the Americans who believe to be beautifully drawn out from the impasse and at the same time, it develops the naval dossier, making long-term strategic cooperation thanks to naval bases in Cyprus and Syria. The game could become even tighter and put the US in unpleasant situation.
