Elections Will Not Bring Clarity About Brexit

From today’s point of view, the result of the general elections, in one way or another, is for the British to withdraw from the EU. Clarity could only be achieved by a new referendum or by a withdrawal of the resignation request before January 31, 2020.

Elections should be as immediate, free, equal and secret as possible in order to express the will of the sovereign, of the people. On December 12, 2019, the British people will elect a new House of Commons – and thus, it is hoped, bring political momentum back to the intended withdrawal from the European Union.

What is the maximum that can be expected from December 12? From Boris Johnson’s point of view, the maximum is probably to gain a stable majority in the House of Commons. This would allow the Brexit law to be passed this year and the withdrawal to take place – at least formally – by January 31, 2020.

From Jeremy Corbyn’s point of view, the maximum is probably that Johnson does not succeed in forming exactly this stable majority. Realistically, Labour may not gain this stable majority either, but it can hope for the support of the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Welsh and Scottish nationalists who all reject Brexit and may therefore be willing to support Corbyn’s election as the next British Prime Minister.

If Johnson’s plans work out (and the opinion polls speak for it, at least at the moment), it will cause the British people quite a headache. Johnson says he could negotiate a free trade agreement with the EU within a few months, but this is just as unlikely as it is certain that Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish people will start to rumble. Rapidly growing domestic unrest will put as much pressure on the new government as the struggle for maintaining the advantages of the European single market.

If Johnson’s plans don’t work out, the stalemate in the House of Commons will continue. Although support for Corbyn by the smaller parliamentary parties is conceivable, it will be bought at a high price – for example a concession for a referendum on Scottish independence. In addition, Corbyn’s plans for “the morning after” are far from being concrete. He certainly wants to renegotiate a “softer” Brexit than Johnson and then hold a referendum on “his” deal. This doesn’t look like power play at all.

For the British people, the elections to the House of Commons will change very little. Maybe Britain will get a new Prime Minister, but uncertainty will remain. In both scenarios, Britain depends on the good will and willingness of its EU allies to re-negotiate. In both scenarios, domestic unrest hangs over the country like the sword of Damocles.

From today’s point of view, the result of the general elections, in one way or another, is for the British to withdraw from the EU. Clarity could only be achieved by a new referendum or by a withdrawal of the resignation request before January 31, 2020.

Brexit is a multi-level problem that cannot be solved by national elections. The European Union and its institutions have failed for years to develop new steering mechanisms to adapt international cooperation to the challenges of the present. Hopes that the new Commission will be able to find answers here are – rightly – modest.

The only thing we can count on at the moment is a new form of conservatism that has spread among the Member States’ political elites. Maintaining power and securing existing networks are in front of mind. This leads to an incrusting of structures, both in the national parliaments and governments and in the EU institutions. Political leaders like Johnson or Corbyn are far too concerned with political claim management and their own interests. What falls by the wayside is the urgent renewal of the political decision-making mechanisms, in order to be able to solve what can no longer be solved with elections.

A sarcastic thought may permitted: After all that is known so far about the influence of data analysis companies such as Cambridge Analytica on the Brexit referendum, do we have to assume that the sovereign will only be questioned “pro forma”?

Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.