On May 26, 2019, the elections to the European Parliament concluded. They brought a number of surprises that will lead to a change in the political landscape of Europe. Arnaud Dubien, head of the French-Russian “Observo” Analytical Centre, spoke about the results of the elections to the European Parliament and their influence on France in an interview with www.valdaiclub.com.
The elections to the European Parliament brought a number of surprises. The main one is the unexpectedly high turnout: 10% more than last time. The second surprise is that the Greens took third place. And the last one – was the completely unexpected failure of the Republicans; it was expected that they would get third place.
If we look at the first two positions and an overall assessment of the elections, although the National Rally of Marine Le Pen is leading, she won a smaller proportion of votes than in previous elections. Therefore, her victory is relative. And this means that the strategic task for her will remain the same: to expand the electorate and find allies. However, there is no progress to expect.
As for Emmanuel Macron and his party “La République En Marche!”, they minimized losses, gaining about 22% of the vote. In the context of current protests, this is not bad, and Macron can achieve what he wanted - a duel with Le Pen in the second round of the next presidential election.
This is the only scenario in which he can win - and, it is worth noting, everything leads to this. His main achievement is that there is no one between him and Le Pen on the right flank, and this is the most important outcome of the current elections.
The configuration of the political system in France continues to change, although it could freeze after the 2017 presidential election. Earlier, Macron managed to “kill” the Socialist Party, and on May 26 he managed to “kill” the Republicans. Although politically he is weakened, he leads his policy of "devastation" successfully.