Asia Pacific is becoming a foreign policy priority for Russia. This is logical, as it is the most rapidly developing geopolitical region. Not only is the global economic and political center of gravity shifting to the region, the direction and forms of humanity’s future development largely depend on it. Russia’s interests cannot be fully reconciled with the interests of the United States or China.
President Vladimir Putin’s visits to Hanoi and Seoul were part of a series of bilateral meetings, which include the summits with China and India in Moscow in March and October 2013 and the “two plus two” talks of the Russian and Japanese foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo in November 2013.
Russia and security challenges in Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific is becoming a foreign policy priority for Russia. This is logical, as it is the most rapidly developing geopolitical region. Not only is the global economic and political center of gravity shifting to the region, the direction and forms of humanity’s future development largely depend on it. Rapid economic growth has already turned East Asia into the world’s third largest production, distribution and consumption center alongside the United States and the EU, as well as the biggest holder of international reserves and a global investor.
However, the current situation in Asia Pacific is not trouble-free. Globalization has aggravated the struggle for leadership and for spheres of influence in the region, and regional countries are building up their militaries. Seven of the world’s ten largest armies are located in the region, while six countries have nuclear weapons and three others can acquire them whenever necessary.
Security challenges in Asia Pacific directly affect Russia, as internal and external interests are more closely intertwined in this region than anywhere else in the world.
Russia’s future as a great power depends on the economic, technological and social development of Siberia and the Far East, which it can only achieve by maintaining good relations with its neighbors. Russia also needs huge funds to develop its eastern regions, which is why it should promote international cooperation based on Russian laws and on mutual benefit.
Vietnam and South Korea are among Russia’s closest neighbors. But they are vastly different countries, and Russia’s relations with them took dramatically different courses in the second half of the 20th century. Russia and Vietnam started developing friendly relations more than 60 years ago, when the Soviet Union made a decisive contribution to Vietnam’s war against the United States. South Korea has been a US ally for over 60 years.
Vietnam is a strategic partner of Russia, and South Korea has been striving for the same status. Since Russia, Vietnam and South Korea have a number of common goals, Vladimir Putin not only discussed the progress of bilateral relations during his visits to Hanoi and Seoul but also set new goals for the future.
Given the current alignment of forces in Asia Pacific, Russia cannot use military force to address security challenges there. The regional security architecture, built during the cold war, needs to be completely revamped and adapted to the new system of power in Asia Pacific, which is based on the growing might of China and India. Nor is it well-suited to combating primarily non-military global and regional challenges.
Russia can only promote its security in the Far East by convincing its neighbors of the advantages of a broad and lasting economic partnership to promote economic and political security on the basis of multi-polarity.
History shows that joint economic projects are the best way to strengthen mutual trust and to reduce bilateral tensions. Russia gained this experience first-hand in relations with Western Europe in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Now that the Asian-Pacific region is gaining global economic predominance, Russia needs to raise its political and economic cooperation with regional countries to the standards of its relations with European countries.
Vietnam and South Korea are among the leading growth centers in Asia Pacific, and so Russia is interested in developing cooperation with them in the political, trade, economic, scientific, technological, security, cultural, and education spheres, among many others.
Vietnam – Russia’s strategic partner
The Customs Union of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus has been negotiating a free trade area with Vietnam. Russian-Vietnamese trade grew by 20% to $3.66 billion last year, and the two countries plan to reach $10 billion by 2020. Energy projects are a crucial component of their relations. Vietsovpetro, a joint company established years ago to explore oil and gas reserves on Vietnam’s continental shelf, earns tens of billions of dollars per year. Rosneft and Gazprom are cooperating with Vietnam in hydrocarbon processing, modernization of refining facilities, and LNG deliveries from the Russian Far East. Rusvietpetro is implementing several projects in the Yamal-Nenets autonomous area in the north of European Russia, while Gazpromviet is developing oil and gas fields in the Orenburg Region, the south Urals and in the Yamal-Nenets autonomous area, West Siberia.
Russia is also helping Vietnam develop its nuclear industry. Rosatom will build the country’s first nuclear power plant in the Ninh Thuan province, with the first two power units to come on line in 2023 and 2024. The parties are discussing plans to build a nuclear science and technology center in Vietnam and to cooperate in space exploration and the Glonass satellite program, aircraft and railway transportation, mechanical engineering, mining, banking and healthcare. Their military technology cooperation has improved to the point that Vietnam is now preparing to produce modern Russian weapons under license agreements.
Prospects of Russian-South Korean relations
Russia needs to maintain neighborly relations with the Republic of Korea primarily to improve the general situation on the Korean Peninsula. Tensions between South Korea and North Korea have smoldered for over 50 years and are the main security threat in Northeast Asia. Bilateral relations have deteriorated significantly in the past decade after North Korea developed a nuclear bomb.
South Korea is a major military power and a military ally of the United States. Its army is one of the ten largest in the world. It has recently bought weapons which cannot be described as defensive and could be used to protect the military interests of a reunited Korean state. However, the political and national leanings of unified Korea could pose a major threat to Russia.
Russia not only needs to work together with South Korea to create a multilateral security system in Northeast Asia based on the principle of checks and balances. South Korea is also an important trade, economic, scientific and technological partner and a developed state with a large economy. With a population of 50 million people, it accounts for around 2% of global GDP and is the world’s eighth largest country in terms of foreign trade. South Korea has the world’s second largest shipbuilding industry with 33% of contracts and is the world’s third largest producer of semiconductors and display screens. It has the fifth largest automotive industry and the sixth largest steel industry. It is a major exporter of weapons and military equipment to the Asian-Pacific market and global markets, including air defense systems, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, tanks and aircraft.
South Korea is one of the world’s top ten investors in R&D and fourth in the world in the number of patent applications after the United States, Japan and China. It has a space program and plans to send a probe to the Moon’s orbit by 2020 and to the Moon’s surface by 2025.
Russia and South Korea’s mutual interests reside mainly in politics and the economy. The political dimension includes the North Korean issue as well as Russia’s role as a counterbalance to China and Japan in Northeast Asia.
As for the economy, South Korea, which has limited mineral and other natural resources, would like to take part in resource development in Siberia and the Russian Far East. At the same time, Russia is a promising market for South Korean industrial goods.
South Korea is also willing to cooperate in space exploration and the nuclear industry, fields where Russia is a global leader. South Korea’s Naro Space Center was built in cooperation with the Russian Space Agency (Roscosmos), a Russian-South Korean space crew flew a joint mission in a Russian spacecraft in April 2008, and the Russian-South Korean KSLV-1 launch vehicle was put into orbit in February 2013. South Korea imports Russian fuel for its nuclear power plants, as well as Russian helicopters and other types of weapons and military equipment.
During Putin’s visit to Seoul, the parties agreed that South Korean investors could access the Customs Union and the Common Economic Space of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus to sell their products not only in Russia but also in the other two states. They said that one of their priorities is to strengthen cooperation in space exploration. The two presidents also discussed the development of transportation infrastructure and joint projects – including with the participation of North Korea – in the railway and energy industries and in gas supplies. They also mentioned cooperation in the Arctic. South Korean companies hope to receive contracts to build oil and gas production platforms and hydrocarbon carriers for the Northern Sea Route. Russian-South Korean cultural cooperation will be boosted by agreements on visa-free travel and on the establishment of a Russian cultural center in Seoul and a South Korean cultural center in Moscow.
The United States and China: Influence in Asia Pacific
Relations between the United States and China, the biggest economic and political powers in Asia Pacific, strongly influence the situation in the region. The United States dominated the region for decades after WWII, relying on a system of military alliances created during the cold war and the dependence of regional countries on the US economy.
The rising Chinese giant has challenged US domination, primarily in the economy where the United States has been made vulnerable by its huge budget deficit and sovereign debt. Global financial stability largely depends on Beijing, which has $3.66 trillion in currency reserves, which it deploys to strengthen its global political and economic influence. It uses its foreign trade revenues to invest in energy deposits outside China, purchase new technologies, and provide economic assistance and preferential loans to developing countries.
Chinese analysts describe modern US-Chinese relations as “competitive interaction.” The United States depends on the Chinese economy more than on any of its allies. Its trade deficit with China hit a record-high $315 billion in 2012. China is also the United States’ largest creditor: it holds over $1.2 trillion of US debt.
Both the United States and China want to lead multilateral cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. A serious escalation of the US-Chinese rivalry would eventually force the region’s small and midsized countries to make a choice, which neither Washington nor Beijing want to happen. So the challenge now is to halt the polarization of the Asian-Pacific region and prevent it from falling victim to US-Chinese confrontation, as this would wipe out the economic progress that has made the region so attractive to Russia, encouraging it to strengthen ties with regional countries.
Interest in cooperation with Russia
Asia is a deeply divided region. Despite the growing economic interdependence of its largest countries, political tensions between them often grow to the point of open conflict. As such, nearly all Asia-Pacific countries are interested in cooperation with Russia. Given the growing contradictions between the United States and China, both countries would like Russia to refrain from teaming up with the other, at the very least. Japan, while not backing off its territorial dispute with Russia over Kuril islands, has been trying to improve its dialogue with Moscow as a hedge against a rising China. South Korea needs Russia’s assistance to address the North Korean issue and to help develop relations with China and Japan. India is also wary of China’s growing influence and military might, and hopes that Russia won’t follow Beijing’s lead in disputes.
Russia’s interests cannot be fully reconciled with the interests of the United States or China. Moscow needs to develop a new policy of nonalignment. This does not mean keeping an equal distance from the main players, but rather helping to bring together the disunited Asian states in the search for “unity in diversity” and to create a democratic multipolar community of Asian-Pacific states. The current “demand” for Russia is an opportunity that the country must take if it wants to win a befitting place in Asia.
