Cooling Period in Russian-Turkish relations

25.11.2015

For Turkey, such priorities as curbing Syrian Kurds and support of the Turcoman population in the area where the Russian aircraft was shot down, still remain, and they will be certain obstacles for the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations.

The incident with the Russian aircraft will certainly have a serious impact on Russian-Turkish relations and the situation in the region and on the whole international situation.

One can predict that a cooling period, a period of crisis comes in the Russian-Turkish relations, in the economic, political, and especially in the military sphere.

It is obvious that none of the parties is ready to fully abandon the great advantages offered by the preservation of a certain level of cooperation, and is not ready to go on serious risks with sharp reduction or freezing of cooperation. There is a cooperation in the oil and gas sector, especially in the field of gas supplies, which is important for each of the parties. The same can be said about the regional political cooperation in which Turkey is still one of the most influential players, and without which it is still impossible to solve the Syrian crisis.

It is quite clear that Russia can't go further without measures aimed to prevent such incidents. And Russia has to respond adequately.

Such measures are already taken by the Russian military, and they are very constructive and serious: for example, the decision to accompany attack aircraft by fighters.

But it is also clear that Turkey, if it acknowledges a mistake (we hope that the Turkish side will be able to transcend their ambitions and apologize), major differences in any case willl remain.

For Turkey, such priorities as curbing Syrian Kurds and support of the Turcoman population in the area where the Russian aircraft was shot down, still remain, and they will be certain obstacles for the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations.

However, we can predict that both sides still have the will to normalize relations, which correspond to the interests of their national security and would be able to agree to avoid such crises in the future.
Views expressed are of individual Members and Contributors, rather than the Club's, unless explicitly stated otherwise.

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