The pro-federalization forces will not retreat. They will not accept shallow amendments to the Ukrainian constitution that would leave its essence and the fundamentals of interstate relations in Ukraine unchanged. This means that a real civil war could start as soon as May 26-27.
Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director for Research at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and an expert of the Valdai International Discussion Club, believes that the Geneva statement of April 17 only offers crisis settlement principles rather than a practical plan for Ukraine.
“It was clear from the start that the United States and the Kiev government it controls would not honor these principles, because they don’t want to settle the conflict. What they want really badly is to hold the presidential election to formalize and legalize the results of the February coup,” Suslov said.
But the pro-federalization forces will not retreat. They will not accept shallow amendments to the Ukrainian constitution that would leave its essence and the fundamentals of interstate relations in Ukraine unchanged. This means that a real civil war could start as soon as May 26-27.
“Constitutional reform is the only thing that can help Ukraine. But if they agree to this, they should be ready to overhaul the system from top to bottom,” Dmitry Suslov said. He believes that Ukraine should have a two chamber parliament, with an upper house representing the interests of the regions, and a re-division of the authority between the president and the parliament.
The EU’s passiveness in the Ukrainian conflict is destructive, Suslov said. It is in a difficult position itself, because it has not developed a common defense policy and cannot argue with the United States on which it heavily depends. For this reason, the EU cannot stop, or at least influence, destructive US actions, which are rocking Ukraine and could push it into economic collapse and civil war. But the EU has to support the US pressure on Russia and its sanction lists.
“Europeans must play a constructive role in the conflict because this is their region, as well as Russia’s. An economic collapse and civil war in Ukraine would also affect Europe. Europe doesn’t want a huge inflow of Ukrainian refugees, the growth of organized crime, the need to provide large-scale humanitarian aid, or problems with gas supplies via Ukraine,” the expert said.
Dmitry Suslov believes that the reasons behind the Ukrainian crisis lie in US-Russia relations, or more precisely, in the lack of any rules in these relations. The Ukrainian crisis will not be settled until the post-cold war chaos is dealt with and Washington and Moscow coordinate a new set of relations based on multipolarity and mutual respect.
